Redistricting under California Proposition 50 shifted the Sacramento-area district into Democratic-leaning territory, setting the stage for the current trader consensus favoring a Democratic winner at 94.9% implied probability. The June 2026 top-two primary advanced Democrat Richard Pan and independent incumbent Kevin Kiley (who switched from Republican affiliation), with general-election polling showing Pan ahead or competitive and nonpartisan ratings classifying the seat as solid or likely Democratic. The district’s voter composition and historical margins reinforce expectations that Pan will prevail on November 3. A late surge in independent or Republican turnout, unexpected polling shifts, or unusually low Democratic participation could narrow the gap, though structural factors limit realistic paths for a Republican outcome at current pricing.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाCA-06 House Election Winner
CA-06 House Election Winner
$49,906 वॉल्यूम
$49,906 वॉल्यूम
2 नव, 2026
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
3%
$49,906 वॉल्यूम
$49,906 वॉल्यूम
2 नव, 2026
Democratic Party
$25,535 वॉल्यूम
95%
Republican Party
$24,371 वॉल्यूम
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting under California Proposition 50 shifted the Sacramento-area district into Democratic-leaning territory, setting the stage for the current trader consensus favoring a Democratic winner at 94.9% implied probability. The June 2026 top-two primary advanced Democrat Richard Pan and independent incumbent Kevin Kiley (who switched from Republican affiliation), with general-election polling showing Pan ahead or competitive and nonpartisan ratings classifying the seat as solid or likely Democratic. The district’s voter composition and historical margins reinforce expectations that Pan will prevail on November 3. A late surge in independent or Republican turnout, unexpected polling shifts, or unusually low Democratic participation could narrow the gap, though structural factors limit realistic paths for a Republican outcome at current pricing.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
बाज़ार खुला: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$49,906समाप्ति तिथि
3 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting under California Proposition 50 shifted the Sacramento-area district into Democratic-leaning territory, setting the stage for the current trader consensus favoring a Democratic winner at 94.9% implied probability. The June 2026 top-two primary advanced Democrat Richard Pan and independent incumbent Kevin Kiley (who switched from Republican affiliation), with general-election polling showing Pan ahead or competitive and nonpartisan ratings classifying the seat as solid or likely Democratic. The district’s voter composition and historical margins reinforce expectations that Pan will prevail on November 3. A late surge in independent or Republican turnout, unexpected polling shifts, or unusually low Democratic participation could narrow the gap, though structural factors limit realistic paths for a Republican outcome at current pricing.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
वॉल्यूम
$49,906समाप्ति तिथि
3 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x2F5e3684c...Redistricting under California Proposition 50 shifted the Sacramento-area district into Democratic-leaning territory, setting the stage for the current trader consensus favoring a Democratic winner at 94.9% implied probability. The June 2026 top-two primary advanced Democrat Richard Pan and independent incumbent Kevin Kiley (who switched from Republican affiliation), with general-election polling showing Pan ahead or competitive and nonpartisan ratings classifying the seat as solid or likely Democratic. The district’s voter composition and historical margins reinforce expectations that Pan will prevail on November 3. A late surge in independent or Republican turnout, unexpected polling shifts, or unusually low Democratic participation could narrow the gap, though structural factors limit realistic paths for a Republican outcome at current pricing.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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