Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no change in ECB key interest rates at the April 29-30 Governing Council meeting, with 96% implied probability, following the March 19 decision to hold the deposit facility at 2%, main refinancing rate at 2.15%, and marginal lending facility unchanged amid Eurozone inflation rising to 2.5%—above the 2% target—driven by energy price surges from the Iran conflict fallout. President Lagarde's April 14 remarks placed the economy between baseline and adverse scenarios without committing to hikes, emphasizing data dependence, while economists largely expect stability through spring despite some banks forecasting later tightening. Upside risks like hotter HICP prints or renewed geopolitical shocks could spur an increase, though growth slowdowns remain a counterbalance.