Recent model consensus from global ensembles points to a maximum temperature in Buenos Aires on September 18 near the 22–23 °C threshold, with partly cloudy skies and light northeast winds limiting daytime heating. Persistent high pressure and a stable marine layer have kept overnight lows mild while moderating the expected spring warming trend, leaving only modest potential for brief afternoon clearing that could push readings slightly higher. Trader positioning reflects this narrow spread, as small shifts in cloud timing or boundary-layer mixing—common uncertainties in short-range forecasts—could determine whether the peak registers at 22 °C or 23 °C. Updated runs from the National Meteorological Service and major centers expected overnight will likely refine the exact maximum.