Strong observational data and forecast model consensus from the Korea Meteorological Administration support the market's 100% implied probability for a 31°C daily maximum in Seoul on July 31. Current surface observations and ensemble runs show stable high-pressure conditions limiting afternoon peaks, consistent with typical late-July climatology where urban heat island effects rarely push extremes beyond this threshold without synoptic forcing. Resolution depends on official station readings at key sites like Seoul's automatic weather stations. While minor model spread or localized microclimate variations could theoretically alter the final recorded value, the tight agreement across multiple guidance sources leaves little realistic room for deviation at this stage.