Trader consensus prices Democratic Party victory at 93% in the IL-04 House race, driven by the district's overwhelming Democratic lean—historically delivering 65-70% margins for incumbents like retiring Rep. Jesús "Chuy" García—and Patty Garcia's unopposed win in the March 17, 2026, Democratic primary as his endorsed chief of staff. The Republican nominee, Lupe Castillo, also advanced unopposed but faces steep structural barriers in this urban, Latino-majority Chicago district rated Solid Democratic by nonpartisan forecasters. No polls or fundraising shifts have emerged post-primary to suggest competitiveness. Potential challenges include a major scandal hitting the Democratic nominee, depressed Democratic turnout amid midterm dynamics, or a viable independent siphoning votes before the November 3 general election.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाIL -04 हाउस चुनाव विजेता
IL -04 हाउस चुनाव विजेता
$29,807 वॉल्यूम
$29,807 वॉल्यूम
3 नव, 2026
डेमोक्रेटिक पार्टी
93%
रिपब्लिकन पार्टी
3%
$29,807 वॉल्यूम
$29,807 वॉल्यूम
3 नव, 2026
डेमोक्रेटिक पार्टी
$18,932 वॉल्यूम
93%
रिपब्लिकन पार्टी
$10,875 वॉल्यूम
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus prices Democratic Party victory at 93% in the IL-04 House race, driven by the district's overwhelming Democratic lean—historically delivering 65-70% margins for incumbents like retiring Rep. Jesús "Chuy" García—and Patty Garcia's unopposed win in the March 17, 2026, Democratic primary as his endorsed chief of staff. The Republican nominee, Lupe Castillo, also advanced unopposed but faces steep structural barriers in this urban, Latino-majority Chicago district rated Solid Democratic by nonpartisan forecasters. No polls or fundraising shifts have emerged post-primary to suggest competitiveness. Potential challenges include a major scandal hitting the Democratic nominee, depressed Democratic turnout amid midterm dynamics, or a viable independent siphoning votes before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
बाज़ार खुला: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
वॉल्यूम
$29,807समाप्ति तिथि
3 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus prices Democratic Party victory at 93% in the IL-04 House race, driven by the district's overwhelming Democratic lean—historically delivering 65-70% margins for incumbents like retiring Rep. Jesús "Chuy" García—and Patty Garcia's unopposed win in the March 17, 2026, Democratic primary as his endorsed chief of staff. The Republican nominee, Lupe Castillo, also advanced unopposed but faces steep structural barriers in this urban, Latino-majority Chicago district rated Solid Democratic by nonpartisan forecasters. No polls or fundraising shifts have emerged post-primary to suggest competitiveness. Potential challenges include a major scandal hitting the Democratic nominee, depressed Democratic turnout amid midterm dynamics, or a viable independent siphoning votes before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
वॉल्यूम
$29,807समाप्ति तिथि
3 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus prices Democratic Party victory at 93% in the IL-04 House race, driven by the district's overwhelming Democratic lean—historically delivering 65-70% margins for incumbents like retiring Rep. Jesús "Chuy" García—and Patty Garcia's unopposed win in the March 17, 2026, Democratic primary as his endorsed chief of staff. The Republican nominee, Lupe Castillo, also advanced unopposed but faces steep structural barriers in this urban, Latino-majority Chicago district rated Solid Democratic by nonpartisan forecasters. No polls or fundraising shifts have emerged post-primary to suggest competitiveness. Potential challenges include a major scandal hitting the Democratic nominee, depressed Democratic turnout amid midterm dynamics, or a viable independent siphoning votes before the November 3 general election.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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