Iran's ongoing efforts to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz amid the 2026 conflict with the United States and Israel have sustained trader focus on shipping targets. After a June memorandum of understanding, the interim truce broke down in early July when Iranian forces struck multiple commercial vessels, prompting renewed U.S. strikes and a naval blockade. The most recent major development occurred on July 22, when Iran-backed Houthis attacked two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea near the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, extending disruptions to a second chokepoint and drawing further U.S. warnings. These actions, alongside repeated IRGC strikes and seizures in the Strait of Hormuz through late July, have kept implied probabilities elevated, with traders pricing continued incidents likely before the August 31 resolution amid persistent military posturing and shipping rerouting.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाIran successfully targets shipping by...?
Iran successfully targets shipping by...?
नया
$14,195 वॉल्यूम
9 अग, 2026
August 9
66%
16 अगस्त
64%
August 31
76%
September 30
86%
$14,195 वॉल्यूम
August 9
$4,401 वॉल्यूम
66%
16 अगस्त
$3,882 वॉल्यूम
64%
August 31
$3,002 वॉल्यूम
76%
September 30
$2,910 वॉल्यूम
86%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship between market creation, and the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to "No".Iran's ongoing efforts to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz amid the 2026 conflict with the United States and Israel have sustained trader focus on shipping targets. After a June memorandum of understanding, the interim truce broke down in early July when Iranian forces struck multiple commercial vessels, prompting renewed U.S. strikes and a naval blockade. The most recent major development occurred on July 22, when Iran-backed Houthis attacked two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea near the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, extending disruptions to a second chokepoint and drawing further U.S. warnings. These actions, alongside repeated IRGC strikes and seizures in the Strait of Hormuz through late July, have kept implied probabilities elevated, with traders pricing continued incidents likely before the August 31 resolution amid persistent military posturing and shipping rerouting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship between market creation, and the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to "No".
बाज़ार खुला: Aug 3, 2026, 4:24 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$14,195समाप्ति तिथि
30 सित, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Aug 3, 2026, 4:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship between market creation, and the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to "No".Iran's ongoing efforts to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz amid the 2026 conflict with the United States and Israel have sustained trader focus on shipping targets. After a June memorandum of understanding, the interim truce broke down in early July when Iranian forces struck multiple commercial vessels, prompting renewed U.S. strikes and a naval blockade. The most recent major development occurred on July 22, when Iran-backed Houthis attacked two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea near the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, extending disruptions to a second chokepoint and drawing further U.S. warnings. These actions, alongside repeated IRGC strikes and seizures in the Strait of Hormuz through late July, have kept implied probabilities elevated, with traders pricing continued incidents likely before the August 31 resolution amid persistent military posturing and shipping rerouting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship between market creation, and the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to "No".
वॉल्यूम
$14,195समाप्ति तिथि
30 सित, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Aug 3, 2026, 4:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran's ongoing efforts to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz amid the 2026 conflict with the United States and Israel have sustained trader focus on shipping targets. After a June memorandum of understanding, the interim truce broke down in early July when Iranian forces struck multiple commercial vessels, prompting renewed U.S. strikes and a naval blockade. The most recent major development occurred on July 22, when Iran-backed Houthis attacked two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea near the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, extending disruptions to a second chokepoint and drawing further U.S. warnings. These actions, alongside repeated IRGC strikes and seizures in the Strait of Hormuz through late July, have kept implied probabilities elevated, with traders pricing continued incidents likely before the August 31 resolution amid persistent military posturing and shipping rerouting.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
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