Current forecast models from European meteorological agencies indicate a narrow range for Amsterdam's minimum temperature on August 28, with consensus favoring 16–17°C as the most probable outcome. This reflects a stable late-summer air mass under light winds and variable cloud cover, which moderates nocturnal radiative cooling while limiting cold advection from the North Sea. Key differentiating factors include overnight dew point depression and boundary-layer mixing: clearer skies could allow brief dips toward 14–15°C, whereas increased humidity or light precipitation would support slightly higher minima near 18°C. Traders are weighting ensemble spread and short-range updates from the ECMWF and KNMI, as small shifts in these variables can resolve the tightly clustered market-implied probabilities.