Persistent warm, humid conditions with frequent cloud cover and thunderstorms are elevating overnight lows in Guangzhou, keeping the August 25 minimum most likely in the mid-to-upper 20s °C. Recent model guidance from sources such as timeanddate and AccuWeather points to a daily low near 27–28 °C under overcast skies and scattered storms, which limit radiative cooling and trap heat and moisture. Historical August climatology shows typical minima around 25–26 °C, but the current pattern of moderate-to-heavy rain and high humidity (often above 80 %) supports trader consensus favoring outcomes of 26 °C or higher. Lower probabilities assigned to 23 °C or below reflect the low likelihood of clear, dry nights that would allow stronger cooling before the next frontal passage. Updated CMA or NMC forecast runs expected within the next 24 hours remain the key near-term catalyst that could shift these implied probabilities.