Persistent cloud cover, widespread showers, and high humidity from the southwest monsoon are holding overnight temperatures in Manila near seasonal norms, with official forecasts pointing to a daily minimum of 24–25 °C. Light-to-moderate winds and near-continuous low-level cloud have limited radiative cooling, keeping the mercury from falling to the 23 °C level that would require clearer skies and drier air. Model consensus shows only modest variability in the timing of heaviest rain, which explains why market-implied probabilities remain tightly clustered around 23–25 °C. Updated guidance from regional numerical weather prediction runs and any late-day clearing will be the key variables that could shift the final recorded low before midnight.