Recent ensemble model runs from NOAA and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts show modest spread in overnight radiative cooling and boundary-layer mixing over the New York City metropolitan area, keeping the most likely minimum temperature clustered between 68–73 °F. Light southerly flow, dew points in the mid-60s, and variable cloud cover expected after midnight limit the potential for either strong cooling or retained heat, producing the tight probability distribution across the 68–69 °F, 70–71 °F, and 72–73 °F bins. Urban heat-island effects and the precise timing of any weak frontal passage remain the key variables that could shift the official Central Park observation by a degree or two before the National Weather Service finalizes its reading.