**Current forecasts for the overnight minimum in Paris on August 24, 2026, cluster around 14–17°C, aligning closely with the historical average low of 13.9°C for the date.** Multiple models, including Météo-France-linked outlooks and European numerical guidance, indicate an early-morning low near 14°C under partly to mostly cloudy skies with light northeasterly flow. This setup limits strong radiational cooling while preventing significant warm advection. August 2026 has run notably above the long-term August mean (departure around +3–4°C through mid-month), but a gradual cooling trend has set in as high pressure builds and winds shift. Recent observations show daytime highs dropping from the mid-30s°C range earlier in the month toward the mid-20s°C by the 22nd–23rd, with overnight minima already trending near or slightly above normal. No major synoptic features—such as a strong cold front or clear, calm conditions favoring deeper cooling—are expected to push the low substantially below 13°C or above 16°C. Market-implied probabilities reflect this narrow forecast envelope, with 13–15°C capturing over 80% of trader consensus. The slight edge to 14°C over 13°C or 15°C mirrors the tight clustering in the latest model runs, while lower-probability tails (11°C or below, or 17°C+) account for residual uncertainty in cloud cover and wind speeds. Updated guidance from official agencies in the next 24–48 hours will be the key catalyst for any shifts in these odds.