**Forecast models and local meteorological guidance point to a minimum temperature of 25–26°C in Shanghai on September 3, aligning closely with the market’s leading implied probabilities (26°C at 61.5%, 25°C at 24%).** Early September subtropical conditions in eastern China typically feature overnight lows in the mid-20s Celsius, moderated by high humidity, residual monsoon moisture, and light northeast winds. Current observations show persistent cloud cover and scattered rain on September 2, which limits radiational cooling and supports an elevated minimum near 25–26°C. Official forecasts from Chinese meteorological sources and international models (including hourly trends) converge on this range, with little indication of a stronger cold-air surge or clear-sky radiative cooling that would push the low lower. The narrow spread in market odds reflects this model consensus and the short time horizon to resolution, while the small probabilities on 27°C or cooler outcomes account for minor forecast variability in cloud timing or localized effects. No major shifts in steering patterns or typhoon influences appear imminent that would alter the baseline expectation before tomorrow’s low is recorded.