**Persistent cloud cover, humidity, and ongoing regional rainfall are keeping overnight lows elevated in Wuhan, supporting trader consensus around the mid-20s °C minimum with notable weight on warmer outcomes.** Forecasts from the Wuhan Meteorological Observatory and models such as those referenced by China Weather Network indicate a daily minimum near 23–25°C for September 25, under mostly cloudy to overcast skies with light to moderate rain possible. High humidity and cloudiness from the active Jianghuai rainfall pattern limit radiative cooling overnight, preventing sharper drops typical in clearer autumn conditions. This aligns with the market’s leading 29°C-or-higher outcome at 45% implied probability, as traders price in the chance that dense cloud and precipitation sustain warmer nights. Slightly cooler scenarios (around 24°C at 25.5% and lower buckets near 20%) reflect residual model spread and the potential for brief clearing or localized variations, though a sharp plunge toward 19°C or below remains less favored given the current steering pattern and lack of strong cold-air intrusion until later in the week. Historical late-September baselines for Wuhan show typical minima in the low-to-mid 20s °C, providing context for the current positioning. Updated model runs and any shifts in precipitation intensity ahead of the 25th remain the key near-term catalysts.