Mojtaba Khamenei assumed Iran's supreme leadership in March 2026 following his father Ali Khamenei's assassination in the opening US-Israeli strikes of the ongoing conflict. Trader focus on exit probabilities centers on persistent reports of his injuries from those strikes, prolonged absence from public view, and reliance on state media statements or proxies amid active hostilities. Regime institutions including the IRGC and Assembly of Experts have backed continuity in place, while unverified claims of treatment in Qom or incapacitation have circulated without confirmed relocation abroad. Recent attributed statements on nuclear policy and regional posture through May have signaled internal consolidation rather than departure, though wartime instability and leadership opacity keep scenarios of external pressure or health-driven movement in play before any specified deadline.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया$1,995,019 वॉल्यूम
30 जून, 2026
30 जून
1%
$1,995,019 वॉल्यूम
30 जून
$584,787 वॉल्यूम
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei has left Iran for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Mojtaba Khamenei left Iran, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Mojtaba Khamenei assumed Iran's supreme leadership in March 2026 following his father Ali Khamenei's assassination in the opening US-Israeli strikes of the ongoing conflict. Trader focus on exit probabilities centers on persistent reports of his injuries from those strikes, prolonged absence from public view, and reliance on state media statements or proxies amid active hostilities. Regime institutions including the IRGC and Assembly of Experts have backed continuity in place, while unverified claims of treatment in Qom or incapacitation have circulated without confirmed relocation abroad. Recent attributed statements on nuclear policy and regional posture through May have signaled internal consolidation rather than departure, though wartime instability and leadership opacity keep scenarios of external pressure or health-driven movement in play before any specified deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei has left Iran for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Mojtaba Khamenei left Iran, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Mojtaba Khamenei left Iran, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
बाज़ार खुला: Mar 24, 2026, 4:25 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$1,995,019समाप्ति तिथि
30 अप्रैल, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Mar 24, 2026, 4:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei has left Iran for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Mojtaba Khamenei left Iran, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Mojtaba Khamenei assumed Iran's supreme leadership in March 2026 following his father Ali Khamenei's assassination in the opening US-Israeli strikes of the ongoing conflict. Trader focus on exit probabilities centers on persistent reports of his injuries from those strikes, prolonged absence from public view, and reliance on state media statements or proxies amid active hostilities. Regime institutions including the IRGC and Assembly of Experts have backed continuity in place, while unverified claims of treatment in Qom or incapacitation have circulated without confirmed relocation abroad. Recent attributed statements on nuclear policy and regional posture through May have signaled internal consolidation rather than departure, though wartime instability and leadership opacity keep scenarios of external pressure or health-driven movement in play before any specified deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei has left Iran for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Mojtaba Khamenei left Iran, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Mojtaba Khamenei left Iran, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
वॉल्यूम
$1,995,019समाप्ति तिथि
30 अप्रैल, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Mar 24, 2026, 4:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Mojtaba Khamenei assumed Iran's supreme leadership in March 2026 following his father Ali Khamenei's assassination in the opening US-Israeli strikes of the ongoing conflict. Trader focus on exit probabilities centers on persistent reports of his injuries from those strikes, prolonged absence from public view, and reliance on state media statements or proxies amid active hostilities. Regime institutions including the IRGC and Assembly of Experts have backed continuity in place, while unverified claims of treatment in Qom or incapacitation have circulated without confirmed relocation abroad. Recent attributed statements on nuclear policy and regional posture through May have signaled internal consolidation rather than departure, though wartime instability and leadership opacity keep scenarios of external pressure or health-driven movement in play before any specified deadline.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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