Mojtaba Khamenei assumed Iran's supreme leadership role in March 2026 after his father Ali Khamenei's assassination amid US-Israeli strikes that opened a broader conflict. Trader positioning on his departure from the country reflects persistent regime security concerns, including his reported injuries from those strikes, prolonged public absence, and reliance on written statements or couriers rather than visible appearances. Ongoing military pressure, US intelligence assessments of his location and condition, and explicit threats against successors continue to shape implied probabilities. Key variables include any escalation in airstrikes, internal elite fractures, or diplomatic developments that could force relocation, with his continued presence inside Iran—possibly receiving treatment in Qom—sustaining the current market consensus amid high uncertainty over leadership continuity.