Trader consensus prices "Yes" at 92.5% reflecting the Iranian regime's endurance despite U.S. and Israeli airstrikes commencing February 28, 2026, which struck over 13,000 targets, destroying 80% of air defenses, most ballistic missile storage, drone factories, and 90% of the navy—including the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei—without triggering collapse or internal overthrow. A two-week suspension of bombing strikes agreed around April 8 has held amid an ongoing U.S. naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz halting seaborne trade, but Tehran maintains defiance through proxy actions and leadership continuity under a successor. With the truce nearing expiration on April 22, diplomatic signals like Pakistan-proposed talks temper escalation risks, underscoring structural resilience absent widespread unrest. Late-breaking sanctions, intensified blockades, or renewed airstrikes could shift odds, though historical precedents favor regime survival under pressure.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाक्या ईरानी शासन अमेरिकी सैन्य हमलों से बच पाएगा?
क्या ईरानी शासन अमेरिकी सैन्य हमलों से बच पाएगा?
हाँ
$540,375 वॉल्यूम
$540,375 वॉल्यूम
30 जून, 2026
हाँ
$540,375 वॉल्यूम
$540,375 वॉल्यूम
30 जून, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if both of the following conditions are met by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
1. The US initiates a military action on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory or against any Iranian embassies or consulates by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, a "military action" will be considered to be any use of force executed by the US military on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory (e.g. if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile) that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
2. The Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is NOT overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime will be considered overthrown if a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: If the Iranian regime falls - as defined above - prior to a qualifying U.S. military action, this market will immediately resolve to "No". Trader consensus prices "Yes" at 92.5% reflecting the Iranian regime's endurance despite U.S. and Israeli airstrikes commencing February 28, 2026, which struck over 13,000 targets, destroying 80% of air defenses, most ballistic missile storage, drone factories, and 90% of the navy—including the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei—without triggering collapse or internal overthrow. A two-week suspension of bombing strikes agreed around April 8 has held amid an ongoing U.S. naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz halting seaborne trade, but Tehran maintains defiance through proxy actions and leadership continuity under a successor. With the truce nearing expiration on April 22, diplomatic signals like Pakistan-proposed talks temper escalation risks, underscoring structural resilience absent widespread unrest. Late-breaking sanctions, intensified blockades, or renewed airstrikes could shift odds, though historical precedents favor regime survival under pressure.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if both of the following conditions are met by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
1. The US initiates a military action on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory or against any Iranian embassies or consulates by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, a "military action" will be considered to be any use of force executed by the US military on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory (e.g. if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile) that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
2. The Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is NOT overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime will be considered overthrown if a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: If the Iranian regime falls - as defined above - prior to a qualifying U.S. military action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
1. The US initiates a military action on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory or against any Iranian embassies or consulates by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, a "military action" will be considered to be any use of force executed by the US military on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory (e.g. if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile) that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
2. The Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is NOT overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime will be considered overthrown if a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: If the Iranian regime falls - as defined above - prior to a qualifying U.S. military action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
बाज़ार खुला: Jan 13, 2026, 4:14 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$540,375समाप्ति तिथि
30 जून, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 13, 2026, 4:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if both of the following conditions are met by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
1. The US initiates a military action on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory or against any Iranian embassies or consulates by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, a "military action" will be considered to be any use of force executed by the US military on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory (e.g. if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile) that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
2. The Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is NOT overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime will be considered overthrown if a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: If the Iranian regime falls - as defined above - prior to a qualifying U.S. military action, this market will immediately resolve to "No". Trader consensus prices "Yes" at 92.5% reflecting the Iranian regime's endurance despite U.S. and Israeli airstrikes commencing February 28, 2026, which struck over 13,000 targets, destroying 80% of air defenses, most ballistic missile storage, drone factories, and 90% of the navy—including the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei—without triggering collapse or internal overthrow. A two-week suspension of bombing strikes agreed around April 8 has held amid an ongoing U.S. naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz halting seaborne trade, but Tehran maintains defiance through proxy actions and leadership continuity under a successor. With the truce nearing expiration on April 22, diplomatic signals like Pakistan-proposed talks temper escalation risks, underscoring structural resilience absent widespread unrest. Late-breaking sanctions, intensified blockades, or renewed airstrikes could shift odds, though historical precedents favor regime survival under pressure.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if both of the following conditions are met by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
1. The US initiates a military action on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory or against any Iranian embassies or consulates by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, a "military action" will be considered to be any use of force executed by the US military on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory (e.g. if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile) that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
2. The Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is NOT overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime will be considered overthrown if a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: If the Iranian regime falls - as defined above - prior to a qualifying U.S. military action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
1. The US initiates a military action on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory or against any Iranian embassies or consulates by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, a "military action" will be considered to be any use of force executed by the US military on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory (e.g. if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile) that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
2. The Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is NOT overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime will be considered overthrown if a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: If the Iranian regime falls - as defined above - prior to a qualifying U.S. military action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
वॉल्यूम
$540,375समाप्ति तिथि
30 जून, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 13, 2026, 4:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "Yes" at 92.5% reflecting the Iranian regime's endurance despite U.S. and Israeli airstrikes commencing February 28, 2026, which struck over 13,000 targets, destroying 80% of air defenses, most ballistic missile storage, drone factories, and 90% of the navy—including the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei—without triggering collapse or internal overthrow. A two-week suspension of bombing strikes agreed around April 8 has held amid an ongoing U.S. naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz halting seaborne trade, but Tehran maintains defiance through proxy actions and leadership continuity under a successor. With the truce nearing expiration on April 22, diplomatic signals like Pakistan-proposed talks temper escalation risks, underscoring structural resilience absent widespread unrest. Late-breaking sanctions, intensified blockades, or renewed airstrikes could shift odds, though historical precedents favor regime survival under pressure.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
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