Incumbent Ryan Zinke's March retirement opened Montana's 1st Congressional District House race, an R+5 battleground blending urban liberal areas like Missoula and Bozeman with rural Republican strongholds, fueling trader consensus favoring Republicans at 56% implied probability. Crowded June 2 open primaries pit four Democrats—fundraising leader Ryan Busse atop $530,000 raised—against four Republicans, including Aaron Flint with $454,000, heightening uncertainty over nominees. Recent first-quarter filings show competitive fundraising, while nonpartisan ratings from Cook Political Report and Inside Elections hold at Likely Republican despite a March shift toward Democrats, reflecting historical base rates for GOP retention in similar open seats. Primary outcomes and national midterm trends could tip this closely contested matchup.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाMT-01 House Election Winner
MT-01 House Election Winner
नया
नया
4 नव, 2026
Republican Party
56%
Democratic Party
44%
नया
नया
4 नव, 2026
Republican Party
$633 वॉल्यूम
56%
Democratic Party
$240 वॉल्यूम
44%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Ryan Zinke's March retirement opened Montana's 1st Congressional District House race, an R+5 battleground blending urban liberal areas like Missoula and Bozeman with rural Republican strongholds, fueling trader consensus favoring Republicans at 56% implied probability. Crowded June 2 open primaries pit four Democrats—fundraising leader Ryan Busse atop $530,000 raised—against four Republicans, including Aaron Flint with $454,000, heightening uncertainty over nominees. Recent first-quarter filings show competitive fundraising, while nonpartisan ratings from Cook Political Report and Inside Elections hold at Likely Republican despite a March shift toward Democrats, reflecting historical base rates for GOP retention in similar open seats. Primary outcomes and national midterm trends could tip this closely contested matchup.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
बाज़ार खुला: Dec 16, 2025, 12:19 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$874समाप्ति तिथि
4 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Dec 16, 2025, 12:19 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Ryan Zinke's March retirement opened Montana's 1st Congressional District House race, an R+5 battleground blending urban liberal areas like Missoula and Bozeman with rural Republican strongholds, fueling trader consensus favoring Republicans at 56% implied probability. Crowded June 2 open primaries pit four Democrats—fundraising leader Ryan Busse atop $530,000 raised—against four Republicans, including Aaron Flint with $454,000, heightening uncertainty over nominees. Recent first-quarter filings show competitive fundraising, while nonpartisan ratings from Cook Political Report and Inside Elections hold at Likely Republican despite a March shift toward Democrats, reflecting historical base rates for GOP retention in similar open seats. Primary outcomes and national midterm trends could tip this closely contested matchup.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
वॉल्यूम
$874समाप्ति तिथि
4 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Dec 16, 2025, 12:19 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Ryan Zinke's March retirement opened Montana's 1st Congressional District House race, an R+5 battleground blending urban liberal areas like Missoula and Bozeman with rural Republican strongholds, fueling trader consensus favoring Republicans at 56% implied probability. Crowded June 2 open primaries pit four Democrats—fundraising leader Ryan Busse atop $530,000 raised—against four Republicans, including Aaron Flint with $454,000, heightening uncertainty over nominees. Recent first-quarter filings show competitive fundraising, while nonpartisan ratings from Cook Political Report and Inside Elections hold at Likely Republican despite a March shift toward Democrats, reflecting historical base rates for GOP retention in similar open seats. Primary outcomes and national midterm trends could tip this closely contested matchup.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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