Stefany Shaheen leads the New Hampshire 1st Congressional District Democratic primary with trader consensus reflecting her local political experience as a former Portsmouth city councilor and police commission chair, along with strong in-state fundraising and name recognition tied to her family’s long-standing role in state politics. Recent Saint Anselm College polling from July 2026 shows Maura Sullivan, a U.S. Marine Corps veteran and former Obama administration official who previously ran for the seat in 2018, narrowing the gap but remaining well behind as the primary approaches on September 8. Minor candidates including state Representative Heath Howard and Carleigh Beriont trail significantly, with limited polling visibility and resources. The market pricing captures Shaheen’s structural advantages in endorsements and donor support ahead of the vote.