Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Stefany Shaheen a 53% implied probability to win the New Hampshire 1st Congressional District Democratic primary on September 8, driven by her consistent polling leads—such as 23% to Maura Sullivan's 9% in recent surveys—and strong name recognition as daughter of Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, alongside consolidating establishment support. Sullivan holds 26.5% amid her fundraising dominance, outpacing Shaheen in quarterly reports through Q1 2026, signaling potential to close the gap in this open-seat race vacated by Rep. Chris Pappas for Senate. Carleigh Beriont's 10.5% reflects local appeal as Hampton select board member, while Heath Howard lags at 2.5%. No major developments in the past 30 days; upcoming debates and FEC filings could influence undecided voters.