Democratic incumbent Laura Gillen holds a strong position in New York’s 4th congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election, reflecting her narrow 2024 victory that flipped the seat and the district’s slight Democratic lean. She advanced automatically after the June Democratic primary was canceled, preserving party resources, while Republican Jeanine Driscoll secured her party’s nomination in the June primary as a local Hempstead official focused on taxes and affordability. The D+2 partisan voting index and suburban Nassau County voter base favor the incumbent’s re-election bid in most trader assessments. With roughly eleven weeks until Election Day, limited new polling and the absence of major shifts in candidate positioning or national conditions have kept probabilities stable, though competitive historical margins in the district leave room for late movement based on turnout or campaign developments.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाNY-04 House Election Winner
NY-04 House Election Winner
नया
नया
3 नव, 2026
Democratic Party
87%
Republican Party
15%
नया
नया
3 नव, 2026
Democratic Party
$1,549 वॉल्यूम
87%
Republican Party
$402 वॉल्यूम
15%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic incumbent Laura Gillen holds a strong position in New York’s 4th congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election, reflecting her narrow 2024 victory that flipped the seat and the district’s slight Democratic lean. She advanced automatically after the June Democratic primary was canceled, preserving party resources, while Republican Jeanine Driscoll secured her party’s nomination in the June primary as a local Hempstead official focused on taxes and affordability. The D+2 partisan voting index and suburban Nassau County voter base favor the incumbent’s re-election bid in most trader assessments. With roughly eleven weeks until Election Day, limited new polling and the absence of major shifts in candidate positioning or national conditions have kept probabilities stable, though competitive historical margins in the district leave room for late movement based on turnout or campaign developments.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
बाज़ार खुला: Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$1,950समाप्ति तिथि
4 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic incumbent Laura Gillen holds a strong position in New York’s 4th congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election, reflecting her narrow 2024 victory that flipped the seat and the district’s slight Democratic lean. She advanced automatically after the June Democratic primary was canceled, preserving party resources, while Republican Jeanine Driscoll secured her party’s nomination in the June primary as a local Hempstead official focused on taxes and affordability. The D+2 partisan voting index and suburban Nassau County voter base favor the incumbent’s re-election bid in most trader assessments. With roughly eleven weeks until Election Day, limited new polling and the absence of major shifts in candidate positioning or national conditions have kept probabilities stable, though competitive historical margins in the district leave room for late movement based on turnout or campaign developments.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
वॉल्यूम
$1,950समाप्ति तिथि
4 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Democratic incumbent Laura Gillen holds a strong position in New York’s 4th congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election, reflecting her narrow 2024 victory that flipped the seat and the district’s slight Democratic lean. She advanced automatically after the June Democratic primary was canceled, preserving party resources, while Republican Jeanine Driscoll secured her party’s nomination in the June primary as a local Hempstead official focused on taxes and affordability. The D+2 partisan voting index and suburban Nassau County voter base favor the incumbent’s re-election bid in most trader assessments. With roughly eleven weeks until Election Day, limited new polling and the absence of major shifts in candidate positioning or national conditions have kept probabilities stable, though competitive historical margins in the district leave room for late movement based on turnout or campaign developments.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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