Texas's 4th congressional district remains a solidly Republican seat following 2025 redistricting that strengthened its partisan voting index and voting patterns from prior cycles. Incumbent Pat Fallon secured the GOP nomination in the March 2026 primary with little opposition, while Democratic candidates have struggled to mount competitive fundraising or polling efforts in a district where recent presidential and congressional results have favored Republicans by wide margins. Forecasters rate the race as safe or solid for the GOP. The market's 91.5% implied probability for a Republican winner reflects this structural advantage and lack of recent developments that would shift the race into competitive territory. A major scandal, health issue affecting the nominee, or unprecedented turnout surge could theoretically narrow the gap before November, though historical base rates in comparable districts make such shifts rare.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाTX -04 हाउस इलेक्शन विनर
TX -04 हाउस इलेक्शन विनर
$23,882 वॉल्यूम
$23,882 वॉल्यूम
3 नव, 2026
रिपब्लिकन पार्टी
92%
डेमोक्रेटिक पार्टी
8%
$23,882 वॉल्यूम
$23,882 वॉल्यूम
3 नव, 2026
रिपब्लिकन पार्टी
$10,409 वॉल्यूम
92%
डेमोक्रेटिक पार्टी
$13,473 वॉल्यूम
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Texas's 4th congressional district remains a solidly Republican seat following 2025 redistricting that strengthened its partisan voting index and voting patterns from prior cycles. Incumbent Pat Fallon secured the GOP nomination in the March 2026 primary with little opposition, while Democratic candidates have struggled to mount competitive fundraising or polling efforts in a district where recent presidential and congressional results have favored Republicans by wide margins. Forecasters rate the race as safe or solid for the GOP. The market's 91.5% implied probability for a Republican winner reflects this structural advantage and lack of recent developments that would shift the race into competitive territory. A major scandal, health issue affecting the nominee, or unprecedented turnout surge could theoretically narrow the gap before November, though historical base rates in comparable districts make such shifts rare.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
बाज़ार खुला: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
वॉल्यूम
$23,882समाप्ति तिथि
3 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Texas's 4th congressional district remains a solidly Republican seat following 2025 redistricting that strengthened its partisan voting index and voting patterns from prior cycles. Incumbent Pat Fallon secured the GOP nomination in the March 2026 primary with little opposition, while Democratic candidates have struggled to mount competitive fundraising or polling efforts in a district where recent presidential and congressional results have favored Republicans by wide margins. Forecasters rate the race as safe or solid for the GOP. The market's 91.5% implied probability for a Republican winner reflects this structural advantage and lack of recent developments that would shift the race into competitive territory. A major scandal, health issue affecting the nominee, or unprecedented turnout surge could theoretically narrow the gap before November, though historical base rates in comparable districts make such shifts rare.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
वॉल्यूम
$23,882समाप्ति तिथि
3 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Texas's 4th congressional district remains a solidly Republican seat following 2025 redistricting that strengthened its partisan voting index and voting patterns from prior cycles. Incumbent Pat Fallon secured the GOP nomination in the March 2026 primary with little opposition, while Democratic candidates have struggled to mount competitive fundraising or polling efforts in a district where recent presidential and congressional results have favored Republicans by wide margins. Forecasters rate the race as safe or solid for the GOP. The market's 91.5% implied probability for a Republican winner reflects this structural advantage and lack of recent developments that would shift the race into competitive territory. A major scandal, health issue affecting the nominee, or unprecedented turnout surge could theoretically narrow the gap before November, though historical base rates in comparable districts make such shifts rare.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
अक्सर पूछे जाने वाले प्रश्न