Trader consensus on Polymarket's Virginia redistricting referendum margin reflects a razor-thin expected passage, with Pass 3-6% leading at 30.5% amid clustered probabilities near 16% for narrower yes outcomes and No Pass. Recent polls, including State Navigate's April 10-13 survey showing Yes at 51%-45% among likely special election voters and a Washington Post-Schar poll with 52%-47% Yes, capture the partisan divide—92% of Democrats favor, 92% of Republicans oppose—while independents split. High early voting turnout nearing 1 million ballots, initially stronger in Republican congressional districts but closing in urban Democratic areas, fuels uncertainty in this low-propensity April 21 contest. GOP rural mobilization and Democratic ad spending could tip the balance before early voting ends April 18.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाVirginia Redistricting Referendum: Margin of Victory
Virginia Redistricting Referendum: Margin of Victory
Pass 3-6% 31%
Pass 6-9% 22%
Pass <3% 17%
No Pass 16.4%
$11,817 वॉल्यूम
$11,817 वॉल्यूम
21 अप्रैल, 2026
Pass 15%+
3%
Pass 12-15%
3%
Pass 9-12%
11%
Pass 6-9%
22%
Pass 3-6%
31%
Pass <3%
17%
No Pass
16%
Pass 3-6% 31%
Pass 6-9% 22%
Pass <3% 17%
No Pass 16.4%
$11,817 वॉल्यूम
$11,817 वॉल्यूम
21 अप्रैल, 2026
Pass 15%+
$1,234 वॉल्यूम
3%
Pass 12-15%
$477 वॉल्यूम
3%
Pass 9-12%
$1,313 वॉल्यूम
11%
Pass 6-9%
$424 वॉल्यूम
22%
Pass 3-6%
$1,268 वॉल्यूम
31%
Pass <3%
$464 वॉल्यूम
17%
No Pass
$6,637 वॉल्यूम
16%
Pending legal challenges, Virginia is scheduled to vote in a special election on April 21, 2026, over a referendum to amend the state constitution, allowing the Virginia General Assembly to redraw its congressional districts (see: https://www.elections.virginia.gov/election-law/proposed-amendment-for-april-2026-special-election/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes cast in this referendum.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the “Yes” option and the “No” option in this referendum. Percentages of valid votes for each option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid “Yes” or “No” votes by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the number of valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes is exactly equal, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason, the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is definitively canceled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No Pass”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote, according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).Trader consensus on Polymarket's Virginia redistricting referendum margin reflects a razor-thin expected passage, with Pass 3-6% leading at 30.5% amid clustered probabilities near 16% for narrower yes outcomes and No Pass. Recent polls, including State Navigate's April 10-13 survey showing Yes at 51%-45% among likely special election voters and a Washington Post-Schar poll with 52%-47% Yes, capture the partisan divide—92% of Democrats favor, 92% of Republicans oppose—while independents split. High early voting turnout nearing 1 million ballots, initially stronger in Republican congressional districts but closing in urban Democratic areas, fuels uncertainty in this low-propensity April 21 contest. GOP rural mobilization and Democratic ad spending could tip the balance before early voting ends April 18.
Pending legal challenges, Virginia is scheduled to vote in a special election on April 21, 2026, over a referendum to amend the state constitution, allowing the Virginia General Assembly to redraw its congressional districts (see: https://www.elections.virginia.gov/election-law/proposed-amendment-for-april-2026-special-election/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes cast in this referendum.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the “Yes” option and the “No” option in this referendum. Percentages of valid votes for each option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid “Yes” or “No” votes by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the number of valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes is exactly equal, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason, the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is definitively canceled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No Pass”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote, according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes cast in this referendum.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the “Yes” option and the “No” option in this referendum. Percentages of valid votes for each option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid “Yes” or “No” votes by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the number of valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes is exactly equal, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason, the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is definitively canceled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No Pass”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote, according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).
बाज़ार खुला: Apr 7, 2026, 6:29 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$11,817समाप्ति तिथि
21 अप्रैल, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Apr 7, 2026, 6:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Pending legal challenges, Virginia is scheduled to vote in a special election on April 21, 2026, over a referendum to amend the state constitution, allowing the Virginia General Assembly to redraw its congressional districts (see: https://www.elections.virginia.gov/election-law/proposed-amendment-for-april-2026-special-election/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes cast in this referendum.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the “Yes” option and the “No” option in this referendum. Percentages of valid votes for each option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid “Yes” or “No” votes by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the number of valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes is exactly equal, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason, the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is definitively canceled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No Pass”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote, according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).Trader consensus on Polymarket's Virginia redistricting referendum margin reflects a razor-thin expected passage, with Pass 3-6% leading at 30.5% amid clustered probabilities near 16% for narrower yes outcomes and No Pass. Recent polls, including State Navigate's April 10-13 survey showing Yes at 51%-45% among likely special election voters and a Washington Post-Schar poll with 52%-47% Yes, capture the partisan divide—92% of Democrats favor, 92% of Republicans oppose—while independents split. High early voting turnout nearing 1 million ballots, initially stronger in Republican congressional districts but closing in urban Democratic areas, fuels uncertainty in this low-propensity April 21 contest. GOP rural mobilization and Democratic ad spending could tip the balance before early voting ends April 18.
Pending legal challenges, Virginia is scheduled to vote in a special election on April 21, 2026, over a referendum to amend the state constitution, allowing the Virginia General Assembly to redraw its congressional districts (see: https://www.elections.virginia.gov/election-law/proposed-amendment-for-april-2026-special-election/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes cast in this referendum.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the “Yes” option and the “No” option in this referendum. Percentages of valid votes for each option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid “Yes” or “No” votes by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the number of valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes is exactly equal, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason, the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is definitively canceled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No Pass”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote, according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes cast in this referendum.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the “Yes” option and the “No” option in this referendum. Percentages of valid votes for each option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid “Yes” or “No” votes by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the number of valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes is exactly equal, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason, the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is definitively canceled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No Pass”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote, according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).
वॉल्यूम
$11,817समाप्ति तिथि
21 अप्रैल, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Apr 7, 2026, 6:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket's Virginia redistricting referendum margin reflects a razor-thin expected passage, with Pass 3-6% leading at 30.5% amid clustered probabilities near 16% for narrower yes outcomes and No Pass. Recent polls, including State Navigate's April 10-13 survey showing Yes at 51%-45% among likely special election voters and a Washington Post-Schar poll with 52%-47% Yes, capture the partisan divide—92% of Democrats favor, 92% of Republicans oppose—while independents split. High early voting turnout nearing 1 million ballots, initially stronger in Republican congressional districts but closing in urban Democratic areas, fuels uncertainty in this low-propensity April 21 contest. GOP rural mobilization and Democratic ad spending could tip the balance before early voting ends April 18.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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