Recent polls, including a Washington Post-Schar School survey showing 52% yes among likely voters and State Navigate's five-point yes lead, underpin trader consensus for a narrow passage of Virginia's constitutional amendment allowing temporary legislative redrawing of congressional districts ahead of 2031. High early voting turnout nearing one million ballots—strongest in Republican-held districts like CD1 and CD5—has fueled gains for "No Pass" and tighter margins like Pass <3%, reflecting GOP mobilization against perceived gerrymandering. Differentiation among top outcomes hinges on Election Day surges in Democratic strongholds such as Fairfax and Richmond; sustained rural turnout could consolidate behind No Pass or sub-3% yes, while urban mobilization might push toward 6-9%. The April 21 special election resolves based on statewide yes/no margin.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाVirginia Redistricting Referendum: Margin of Victory
Virginia Redistricting Referendum: Margin of Victory
Pass 3-6% 32%
Pass 6-9% 24%
No Pass 17.6%
Pass <3% 17%
$10,759 वॉल्यूम
$10,759 वॉल्यूम
21 अप्रैल, 2026
Pass 15%+
3%
Pass 12-15%
3%
Pass 9-12%
11%
Pass 6-9%
24%
Pass 3-6%
32%
Pass <3%
17%
No Pass
18%
Pass 3-6% 32%
Pass 6-9% 24%
No Pass 17.6%
Pass <3% 17%
$10,759 वॉल्यूम
$10,759 वॉल्यूम
21 अप्रैल, 2026
Pass 15%+
$1,232 वॉल्यूम
3%
Pass 12-15%
$477 वॉल्यूम
3%
Pass 9-12%
$1,313 वॉल्यूम
11%
Pass 6-9%
$418 वॉल्यूम
24%
Pass 3-6%
$1,233 वॉल्यूम
32%
Pass <3%
$464 वॉल्यूम
17%
No Pass
$5,622 वॉल्यूम
18%
Pending legal challenges, Virginia is scheduled to vote in a special election on April 21, 2026, over a referendum to amend the state constitution, allowing the Virginia General Assembly to redraw its congressional districts (see: https://www.elections.virginia.gov/election-law/proposed-amendment-for-april-2026-special-election/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes cast in this referendum.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the “Yes” option and the “No” option in this referendum. Percentages of valid votes for each option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid “Yes” or “No” votes by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the number of valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes is exactly equal, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason, the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is definitively canceled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No Pass”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote, according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).Recent polls, including a Washington Post-Schar School survey showing 52% yes among likely voters and State Navigate's five-point yes lead, underpin trader consensus for a narrow passage of Virginia's constitutional amendment allowing temporary legislative redrawing of congressional districts ahead of 2031. High early voting turnout nearing one million ballots—strongest in Republican-held districts like CD1 and CD5—has fueled gains for "No Pass" and tighter margins like Pass <3%, reflecting GOP mobilization against perceived gerrymandering. Differentiation among top outcomes hinges on Election Day surges in Democratic strongholds such as Fairfax and Richmond; sustained rural turnout could consolidate behind No Pass or sub-3% yes, while urban mobilization might push toward 6-9%. The April 21 special election resolves based on statewide yes/no margin.
Pending legal challenges, Virginia is scheduled to vote in a special election on April 21, 2026, over a referendum to amend the state constitution, allowing the Virginia General Assembly to redraw its congressional districts (see: https://www.elections.virginia.gov/election-law/proposed-amendment-for-april-2026-special-election/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes cast in this referendum.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the “Yes” option and the “No” option in this referendum. Percentages of valid votes for each option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid “Yes” or “No” votes by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the number of valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes is exactly equal, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason, the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is definitively canceled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No Pass”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote, according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes cast in this referendum.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the “Yes” option and the “No” option in this referendum. Percentages of valid votes for each option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid “Yes” or “No” votes by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the number of valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes is exactly equal, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason, the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is definitively canceled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No Pass”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote, according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).
बाज़ार खुला: Apr 7, 2026, 6:29 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$10,759समाप्ति तिथि
21 अप्रैल, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Apr 7, 2026, 6:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Pending legal challenges, Virginia is scheduled to vote in a special election on April 21, 2026, over a referendum to amend the state constitution, allowing the Virginia General Assembly to redraw its congressional districts (see: https://www.elections.virginia.gov/election-law/proposed-amendment-for-april-2026-special-election/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes cast in this referendum.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the “Yes” option and the “No” option in this referendum. Percentages of valid votes for each option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid “Yes” or “No” votes by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the number of valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes is exactly equal, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason, the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is definitively canceled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No Pass”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote, according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).Recent polls, including a Washington Post-Schar School survey showing 52% yes among likely voters and State Navigate's five-point yes lead, underpin trader consensus for a narrow passage of Virginia's constitutional amendment allowing temporary legislative redrawing of congressional districts ahead of 2031. High early voting turnout nearing one million ballots—strongest in Republican-held districts like CD1 and CD5—has fueled gains for "No Pass" and tighter margins like Pass <3%, reflecting GOP mobilization against perceived gerrymandering. Differentiation among top outcomes hinges on Election Day surges in Democratic strongholds such as Fairfax and Richmond; sustained rural turnout could consolidate behind No Pass or sub-3% yes, while urban mobilization might push toward 6-9%. The April 21 special election resolves based on statewide yes/no margin.
Pending legal challenges, Virginia is scheduled to vote in a special election on April 21, 2026, over a referendum to amend the state constitution, allowing the Virginia General Assembly to redraw its congressional districts (see: https://www.elections.virginia.gov/election-law/proposed-amendment-for-april-2026-special-election/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes cast in this referendum.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the “Yes” option and the “No” option in this referendum. Percentages of valid votes for each option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid “Yes” or “No” votes by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the number of valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes is exactly equal, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason, the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is definitively canceled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No Pass”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote, according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes cast in this referendum.
If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the “Yes” option and the “No” option in this referendum. Percentages of valid votes for each option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid “Yes” or “No” votes by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the number of valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes is exactly equal, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason, the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.
If the referendum vote is definitively canceled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No Pass”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote, according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).
वॉल्यूम
$10,759समाप्ति तिथि
21 अप्रैल, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Apr 7, 2026, 6:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls, including a Washington Post-Schar School survey showing 52% yes among likely voters and State Navigate's five-point yes lead, underpin trader consensus for a narrow passage of Virginia's constitutional amendment allowing temporary legislative redrawing of congressional districts ahead of 2031. High early voting turnout nearing one million ballots—strongest in Republican-held districts like CD1 and CD5—has fueled gains for "No Pass" and tighter margins like Pass <3%, reflecting GOP mobilization against perceived gerrymandering. Differentiation among top outcomes hinges on Election Day surges in Democratic strongholds such as Fairfax and Richmond; sustained rural turnout could consolidate behind No Pass or sub-3% yes, while urban mobilization might push toward 6-9%. The April 21 special election resolves based on statewide yes/no margin.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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