US banking sector resilience persists with just one small FDIC resolution year-to-date—Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust ($261 million assets, closed January 30)—following two failures each in 2024 and 2025, signaling stabilized conditions post-2023 regional turmoil. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects wariness toward regional lenders amid a $875 billion commercial real estate (CRE) debt maturity wall this year, where smaller banks carry fivefold exposure relative to money-center peers, compounded by $306 billion in system-wide unrealized securities losses (FDIC Q1 2026). Approximately 60 institutions remain on the FDIC problem watchlist. Q1 earnings through May and the FOMC's June meeting on monetary policy could trigger deposit shifts or provision hikes, influencing resolution risks by June 30.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया$419,503 वॉल्यूम
30 जून, 2026
कीबैंक
48%
ट्रूइस्ट
11%
BNY
9%
RBC
6%
सैंटेंडर
6%
मॉर्गन स्टेनली
6%
लॉयड्स
5%
BMO
4%
बैंक ऑफ़ अमेरिका
4%
सिटीग्रुप
2%
HSBC
2%
बीएनपी पैरीबास
2%
जेपीमॉर्गन चेस
2%
गोल्डमैन सैक्स
2%
UBS
2%
डॉयचे बैंक
1%
स्कोटियाबैंक
1%
वेल्स फ़ार्गो
48%
यूएस बैंक
48%
$419,503 वॉल्यूम
कीबैंक
$83 वॉल्यूम
48%
ट्रूइस्ट
$5 वॉल्यूम
11%
BNY
$5 वॉल्यूम
9%
RBC
$0 वॉल्यूम
6%
सैंटेंडर
$9 वॉल्यूम
6%
मॉर्गन स्टेनली
$277 वॉल्यूम
6%
लॉयड्स
$24 वॉल्यूम
5%
BMO
$16 वॉल्यूम
4%
बैंक ऑफ़ अमेरिका
$323 वॉल्यूम
4%
सिटीग्रुप
$9,178 वॉल्यूम
2%
HSBC
$37,717 वॉल्यूम
2%
बीएनपी पैरीबास
$22,027 वॉल्यूम
2%
जेपीमॉर्गन चेस
$99,050 वॉल्यूम
2%
गोल्डमैन सैक्स
$19,680 वॉल्यूम
2%
UBS
$30,968 वॉल्यूम
2%
डॉयचे बैंक
$153,000 वॉल्यूम
1%
स्कोटियाबैंक
$46,849 वॉल्यूम
1%
वेल्स फ़ार्गो
$166 वॉल्यूम
48%
यूएस बैंक
$127 वॉल्यूम
48%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed bank fails between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, the listed bank will be considered to have “failed” if, within the listed date range, any of the following occurs under the bank’s applicable legal or regulatory framework:
- The listed bank’s primary banking regulator formally declares the institution insolvent or non-viable, or withdraws or revokes the bank’s license or authorization, and such determination initiates or directly results in resolution, liquidation, wind-down, or transfer actions.
- The listed bank enters a court-ordered liquidation, statutory resolution regime, or regulator-mandated wind-down, including the use of resolution tools such as bail-ins, forced asset transfers, or the establishment of a bridge bank.
- A government or resolution authority intervenes in a manner that wipes out or subordinates existing equity of the listed bank and transfers effective control of the bank to the state or a designated resolution authority, with continued operations dependent on official intervention.
- The listed bank publicly defaults on a payment obligation, including derivatives margin, repo, or physical commodity delivery, and such default is formally acknowledged by the bank’s primary regulator or resolution authority and directly results in the initiation of resolution, liquidation, license withdrawal, or regulator-mandated transfer of the bank.
- The listed bank is subject to a compulsory merger, acquisition, or transfer of all or substantially all of its assets and liabilities ordered or directed by its primary banking regulator or resolution authority due to the bank’s financial condition or to prevent failure, regardless of whether a formal insolvency declaration or immediate equity wipeout is publicly announced at the time of transfer.
If there is a potential failure of the listed bank within this market’s date range and a qualifying regulatory or court action has occurred but has not yet been fully published by the relevant authority, this market may remain open to allow for confirmation. If no qualifying failure is confirmed by that date, this market will resolve to “No.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements, filings, or actions by the listed bank’s primary banking regulator or resolution authority; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.US banking sector resilience persists with just one small FDIC resolution year-to-date—Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust ($261 million assets, closed January 30)—following two failures each in 2024 and 2025, signaling stabilized conditions post-2023 regional turmoil. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects wariness toward regional lenders amid a $875 billion commercial real estate (CRE) debt maturity wall this year, where smaller banks carry fivefold exposure relative to money-center peers, compounded by $306 billion in system-wide unrealized securities losses (FDIC Q1 2026). Approximately 60 institutions remain on the FDIC problem watchlist. Q1 earnings through May and the FOMC's June meeting on monetary policy could trigger deposit shifts or provision hikes, influencing resolution risks by June 30.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed bank fails between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, the listed bank will be considered to have “failed” if, within the listed date range, any of the following occurs under the bank’s applicable legal or regulatory framework:
- The listed bank’s primary banking regulator formally declares the institution insolvent or non-viable, or withdraws or revokes the bank’s license or authorization, and such determination initiates or directly results in resolution, liquidation, wind-down, or transfer actions.
- The listed bank enters a court-ordered liquidation, statutory resolution regime, or regulator-mandated wind-down, including the use of resolution tools such as bail-ins, forced asset transfers, or the establishment of a bridge bank.
- A government or resolution authority intervenes in a manner that wipes out or subordinates existing equity of the listed bank and transfers effective control of the bank to the state or a designated resolution authority, with continued operations dependent on official intervention.
- The listed bank publicly defaults on a payment obligation, including derivatives margin, repo, or physical commodity delivery, and such default is formally acknowledged by the bank’s primary regulator or resolution authority and directly results in the initiation of resolution, liquidation, license withdrawal, or regulator-mandated transfer of the bank.
- The listed bank is subject to a compulsory merger, acquisition, or transfer of all or substantially all of its assets and liabilities ordered or directed by its primary banking regulator or resolution authority due to the bank’s financial condition or to prevent failure, regardless of whether a formal insolvency declaration or immediate equity wipeout is publicly announced at the time of transfer.
If there is a potential failure of the listed bank within this market’s date range and a qualifying regulatory or court action has occurred but has not yet been fully published by the relevant authority, this market may remain open to allow for confirmation. If no qualifying failure is confirmed by that date, this market will resolve to “No.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements, filings, or actions by the listed bank’s primary banking regulator or resolution authority; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, the listed bank will be considered to have “failed” if, within the listed date range, any of the following occurs under the bank’s applicable legal or regulatory framework:
- The listed bank’s primary banking regulator formally declares the institution insolvent or non-viable, or withdraws or revokes the bank’s license or authorization, and such determination initiates or directly results in resolution, liquidation, wind-down, or transfer actions.
- The listed bank enters a court-ordered liquidation, statutory resolution regime, or regulator-mandated wind-down, including the use of resolution tools such as bail-ins, forced asset transfers, or the establishment of a bridge bank.
- A government or resolution authority intervenes in a manner that wipes out or subordinates existing equity of the listed bank and transfers effective control of the bank to the state or a designated resolution authority, with continued operations dependent on official intervention.
- The listed bank publicly defaults on a payment obligation, including derivatives margin, repo, or physical commodity delivery, and such default is formally acknowledged by the bank’s primary regulator or resolution authority and directly results in the initiation of resolution, liquidation, license withdrawal, or regulator-mandated transfer of the bank.
- The listed bank is subject to a compulsory merger, acquisition, or transfer of all or substantially all of its assets and liabilities ordered or directed by its primary banking regulator or resolution authority due to the bank’s financial condition or to prevent failure, regardless of whether a formal insolvency declaration or immediate equity wipeout is publicly announced at the time of transfer.
If there is a potential failure of the listed bank within this market’s date range and a qualifying regulatory or court action has occurred but has not yet been fully published by the relevant authority, this market may remain open to allow for confirmation. If no qualifying failure is confirmed by that date, this market will resolve to “No.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements, filings, or actions by the listed bank’s primary banking regulator or resolution authority; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
बाज़ार खुला: Dec 30, 2025, 7:03 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$419,503समाप्ति तिथि
30 जून, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Dec 30, 2025, 7:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed bank fails between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, the listed bank will be considered to have “failed” if, within the listed date range, any of the following occurs under the bank’s applicable legal or regulatory framework:
- The listed bank’s primary banking regulator formally declares the institution insolvent or non-viable, or withdraws or revokes the bank’s license or authorization, and such determination initiates or directly results in resolution, liquidation, wind-down, or transfer actions.
- The listed bank enters a court-ordered liquidation, statutory resolution regime, or regulator-mandated wind-down, including the use of resolution tools such as bail-ins, forced asset transfers, or the establishment of a bridge bank.
- A government or resolution authority intervenes in a manner that wipes out or subordinates existing equity of the listed bank and transfers effective control of the bank to the state or a designated resolution authority, with continued operations dependent on official intervention.
- The listed bank publicly defaults on a payment obligation, including derivatives margin, repo, or physical commodity delivery, and such default is formally acknowledged by the bank’s primary regulator or resolution authority and directly results in the initiation of resolution, liquidation, license withdrawal, or regulator-mandated transfer of the bank.
- The listed bank is subject to a compulsory merger, acquisition, or transfer of all or substantially all of its assets and liabilities ordered or directed by its primary banking regulator or resolution authority due to the bank’s financial condition or to prevent failure, regardless of whether a formal insolvency declaration or immediate equity wipeout is publicly announced at the time of transfer.
If there is a potential failure of the listed bank within this market’s date range and a qualifying regulatory or court action has occurred but has not yet been fully published by the relevant authority, this market may remain open to allow for confirmation. If no qualifying failure is confirmed by that date, this market will resolve to “No.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements, filings, or actions by the listed bank’s primary banking regulator or resolution authority; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.US banking sector resilience persists with just one small FDIC resolution year-to-date—Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust ($261 million assets, closed January 30)—following two failures each in 2024 and 2025, signaling stabilized conditions post-2023 regional turmoil. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects wariness toward regional lenders amid a $875 billion commercial real estate (CRE) debt maturity wall this year, where smaller banks carry fivefold exposure relative to money-center peers, compounded by $306 billion in system-wide unrealized securities losses (FDIC Q1 2026). Approximately 60 institutions remain on the FDIC problem watchlist. Q1 earnings through May and the FOMC's June meeting on monetary policy could trigger deposit shifts or provision hikes, influencing resolution risks by June 30.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed bank fails between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, the listed bank will be considered to have “failed” if, within the listed date range, any of the following occurs under the bank’s applicable legal or regulatory framework:
- The listed bank’s primary banking regulator formally declares the institution insolvent or non-viable, or withdraws or revokes the bank’s license or authorization, and such determination initiates or directly results in resolution, liquidation, wind-down, or transfer actions.
- The listed bank enters a court-ordered liquidation, statutory resolution regime, or regulator-mandated wind-down, including the use of resolution tools such as bail-ins, forced asset transfers, or the establishment of a bridge bank.
- A government or resolution authority intervenes in a manner that wipes out or subordinates existing equity of the listed bank and transfers effective control of the bank to the state or a designated resolution authority, with continued operations dependent on official intervention.
- The listed bank publicly defaults on a payment obligation, including derivatives margin, repo, or physical commodity delivery, and such default is formally acknowledged by the bank’s primary regulator or resolution authority and directly results in the initiation of resolution, liquidation, license withdrawal, or regulator-mandated transfer of the bank.
- The listed bank is subject to a compulsory merger, acquisition, or transfer of all or substantially all of its assets and liabilities ordered or directed by its primary banking regulator or resolution authority due to the bank’s financial condition or to prevent failure, regardless of whether a formal insolvency declaration or immediate equity wipeout is publicly announced at the time of transfer.
If there is a potential failure of the listed bank within this market’s date range and a qualifying regulatory or court action has occurred but has not yet been fully published by the relevant authority, this market may remain open to allow for confirmation. If no qualifying failure is confirmed by that date, this market will resolve to “No.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements, filings, or actions by the listed bank’s primary banking regulator or resolution authority; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, the listed bank will be considered to have “failed” if, within the listed date range, any of the following occurs under the bank’s applicable legal or regulatory framework:
- The listed bank’s primary banking regulator formally declares the institution insolvent or non-viable, or withdraws or revokes the bank’s license or authorization, and such determination initiates or directly results in resolution, liquidation, wind-down, or transfer actions.
- The listed bank enters a court-ordered liquidation, statutory resolution regime, or regulator-mandated wind-down, including the use of resolution tools such as bail-ins, forced asset transfers, or the establishment of a bridge bank.
- A government or resolution authority intervenes in a manner that wipes out or subordinates existing equity of the listed bank and transfers effective control of the bank to the state or a designated resolution authority, with continued operations dependent on official intervention.
- The listed bank publicly defaults on a payment obligation, including derivatives margin, repo, or physical commodity delivery, and such default is formally acknowledged by the bank’s primary regulator or resolution authority and directly results in the initiation of resolution, liquidation, license withdrawal, or regulator-mandated transfer of the bank.
- The listed bank is subject to a compulsory merger, acquisition, or transfer of all or substantially all of its assets and liabilities ordered or directed by its primary banking regulator or resolution authority due to the bank’s financial condition or to prevent failure, regardless of whether a formal insolvency declaration or immediate equity wipeout is publicly announced at the time of transfer.
If there is a potential failure of the listed bank within this market’s date range and a qualifying regulatory or court action has occurred but has not yet been fully published by the relevant authority, this market may remain open to allow for confirmation. If no qualifying failure is confirmed by that date, this market will resolve to “No.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements, filings, or actions by the listed bank’s primary banking regulator or resolution authority; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
वॉल्यूम
$419,503समाप्ति तिथि
30 जून, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Dec 30, 2025, 7:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US banking sector resilience persists with just one small FDIC resolution year-to-date—Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust ($261 million assets, closed January 30)—following two failures each in 2024 and 2025, signaling stabilized conditions post-2023 regional turmoil. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects wariness toward regional lenders amid a $875 billion commercial real estate (CRE) debt maturity wall this year, where smaller banks carry fivefold exposure relative to money-center peers, compounded by $306 billion in system-wide unrealized securities losses (FDIC Q1 2026). Approximately 60 institutions remain on the FDIC problem watchlist. Q1 earnings through May and the FOMC's June meeting on monetary policy could trigger deposit shifts or provision hikes, influencing resolution risks by June 30.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
अक्सर पूछे जाने वाले प्रश्न