Democratic enthusiasm advantages, evident in elevated primary turnout and special election results even in Republican-leaning areas, alongside the contest's role as a referendum on the Trump administration, sustain trader expectations for above-average House turnout in November. Record or near-record primary participation in states such as Texas and California, combined with expanded mail and early voting access, point to stronger mobilization than typical off-year cycles, while Democratic leads on the generic ballot among likely voters reinforce this dynamic. Republican efforts target 2024 low-propensity supporters through refined outreach, yet historical midterm drops from presidential-year levels and uneven base engagement keep probabilities clustered tightly between 115-130 million votes. Further separation could arise from late shifts in economic conditions, campaign ground-game execution in competitive districts, or changes in youth and independent participation rates.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui2026 Midterms: House Turnout
2026 Midterms: House Turnout
115-120m 20%
120-125m 16%
110-115m 14%
125-130m 12%
$26,160 Vol.
$26,160 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
<85m
1%
85-90m
<1%
90-95m
3%
95-100m
3%
100-105m
7%
105-110m
7%
110-115m
14%
115-120m
20%
120-125m
16%
125-130m
20%
130m+
6%
115-120m 20%
120-125m 16%
110-115m 14%
125-130m 12%
$26,160 Vol.
$26,160 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
<85m
$597 Vol.
1%
85-90m
$599 Vol.
<1%
90-95m
$1,723 Vol.
3%
95-100m
$380 Vol.
3%
100-105m
$1,195 Vol.
7%
105-110m
$931 Vol.
7%
110-115m
$4,450 Vol.
14%
115-120m
$4,056 Vol.
20%
120-125m
$8,370 Vol.
16%
125-130m
$2,842 Vol.
20%
130m+
$1,018 Vol.
6%
The US House of Representatives midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the 2026 US House of Representatives midterm elections.
Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.Democratic enthusiasm advantages, evident in elevated primary turnout and special election results even in Republican-leaning areas, alongside the contest's role as a referendum on the Trump administration, sustain trader expectations for above-average House turnout in November. Record or near-record primary participation in states such as Texas and California, combined with expanded mail and early voting access, point to stronger mobilization than typical off-year cycles, while Democratic leads on the generic ballot among likely voters reinforce this dynamic. Republican efforts target 2024 low-propensity supporters through refined outreach, yet historical midterm drops from presidential-year levels and uneven base engagement keep probabilities clustered tightly between 115-130 million votes. Further separation could arise from late shifts in economic conditions, campaign ground-game execution in competitive districts, or changes in youth and independent participation rates.
The US House of Representatives midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the 2026 US House of Representatives midterm elections.
Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
This market will resolve according to the total number of votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the 2026 US House of Representatives midterm elections.
Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Pasar Dibuka: Feb 20, 2026, 12:38 PM ET
Volume
$26,160Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Feb 20, 2026, 12:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The US House of Representatives midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the 2026 US House of Representatives midterm elections.
Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.Democratic enthusiasm advantages, evident in elevated primary turnout and special election results even in Republican-leaning areas, alongside the contest's role as a referendum on the Trump administration, sustain trader expectations for above-average House turnout in November. Record or near-record primary participation in states such as Texas and California, combined with expanded mail and early voting access, point to stronger mobilization than typical off-year cycles, while Democratic leads on the generic ballot among likely voters reinforce this dynamic. Republican efforts target 2024 low-propensity supporters through refined outreach, yet historical midterm drops from presidential-year levels and uneven base engagement keep probabilities clustered tightly between 115-130 million votes. Further separation could arise from late shifts in economic conditions, campaign ground-game execution in competitive districts, or changes in youth and independent participation rates.
The US House of Representatives midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the 2026 US House of Representatives midterm elections.
Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
This market will resolve according to the total number of votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the 2026 US House of Representatives midterm elections.
Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Volume
$26,160Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Feb 20, 2026, 12:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Democratic enthusiasm advantages, evident in elevated primary turnout and special election results even in Republican-leaning areas, alongside the contest's role as a referendum on the Trump administration, sustain trader expectations for above-average House turnout in November. Record or near-record primary participation in states such as Texas and California, combined with expanded mail and early voting access, point to stronger mobilization than typical off-year cycles, while Democratic leads on the generic ballot among likely voters reinforce this dynamic. Republican efforts target 2024 low-propensity supporters through refined outreach, yet historical midterm drops from presidential-year levels and uneven base engagement keep probabilities clustered tightly between 115-130 million votes. Further separation could arise from late shifts in economic conditions, campaign ground-game execution in competitive districts, or changes in youth and independent participation rates.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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