Apple’s strategic pivot away from a near-term Vision Pro successor underpins the 96% market-implied odds against a 2026 release. Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman and analyst Ming-Chi Kuo report that the Vision Air project was canceled last year, engineers were reassigned to smart glasses slated for late 2027, and any true Vision Pro 2 requires a major redesign for lower weight and cost—pushing hardware timelines to late 2028 or 2029. The M5-chip refresh from October 2025 remains the current model, while recent visionOS 27 updates and targeted layoffs signal continued software investment without accelerating next-generation hardware. Traders view these verified supply-chain and internal shifts as strong signals of delay, though an abrupt competitive response or executive reversal could theoretically compress the schedule.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiApple Vision Pro 2 released before 2027?
Apple Vision Pro 2 released before 2027?
4% peluang
BARU
BARU
Dec 31, 2026
4% peluang
BARU
BARU
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple’s strategic pivot away from a near-term Vision Pro successor underpins the 96% market-implied odds against a 2026 release. Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman and analyst Ming-Chi Kuo report that the Vision Air project was canceled last year, engineers were reassigned to smart glasses slated for late 2027, and any true Vision Pro 2 requires a major redesign for lower weight and cost—pushing hardware timelines to late 2028 or 2029. The M5-chip refresh from October 2025 remains the current model, while recent visionOS 27 updates and targeted layoffs signal continued software investment without accelerating next-generation hardware. Traders view these verified supply-chain and internal shifts as strong signals of delay, though an abrupt competitive response or executive reversal could theoretically compress the schedule.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Pasar Dibuka: Dec 12, 2025, 5:54 PM ET
Volume
$6,272Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Dec 12, 2025, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple’s strategic pivot away from a near-term Vision Pro successor underpins the 96% market-implied odds against a 2026 release. Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman and analyst Ming-Chi Kuo report that the Vision Air project was canceled last year, engineers were reassigned to smart glasses slated for late 2027, and any true Vision Pro 2 requires a major redesign for lower weight and cost—pushing hardware timelines to late 2028 or 2029. The M5-chip refresh from October 2025 remains the current model, while recent visionOS 27 updates and targeted layoffs signal continued software investment without accelerating next-generation hardware. Traders view these verified supply-chain and internal shifts as strong signals of delay, though an abrupt competitive response or executive reversal could theoretically compress the schedule.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$6,272Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Dec 12, 2025, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Apple’s strategic pivot away from a near-term Vision Pro successor underpins the 96% market-implied odds against a 2026 release. Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman and analyst Ming-Chi Kuo report that the Vision Air project was canceled last year, engineers were reassigned to smart glasses slated for late 2027, and any true Vision Pro 2 requires a major redesign for lower weight and cost—pushing hardware timelines to late 2028 or 2029. The M5-chip refresh from October 2025 remains the current model, while recent visionOS 27 updates and targeted layoffs signal continued software investment without accelerating next-generation hardware. Traders view these verified supply-chain and internal shifts as strong signals of delay, though an abrupt competitive response or executive reversal could theoretically compress the schedule.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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