Apple's consistent annual iPhone release cadence, with new models typically launching each September, underpins the 97% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 launch in 2026. Traders view this as a near-certain continuation of the company's hardware cycle, absent any official signals of disruption or skipped years. Supply chain reports and developer ecosystem activity further reinforce expectations of standard feature updates like improved silicon and camera systems. While strong consensus reflects historical precedent, low-probability risks remain, including major component shortages, regulatory delays in key markets, or unforeseen technical hurdles that could push the timeline into 2027.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui$162,245 Vol.
$162,245 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$162,245 Vol.
$162,245 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's consistent annual iPhone release cadence, with new models typically launching each September, underpins the 97% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 launch in 2026. Traders view this as a near-certain continuation of the company's hardware cycle, absent any official signals of disruption or skipped years. Supply chain reports and developer ecosystem activity further reinforce expectations of standard feature updates like improved silicon and camera systems. While strong consensus reflects historical precedent, low-probability risks remain, including major component shortages, regulatory delays in key markets, or unforeseen technical hurdles that could push the timeline into 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Pasar Dibuka: Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ET
Volume
$162,245Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's consistent annual iPhone release cadence, with new models typically launching each September, underpins the 97% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 launch in 2026. Traders view this as a near-certain continuation of the company's hardware cycle, absent any official signals of disruption or skipped years. Supply chain reports and developer ecosystem activity further reinforce expectations of standard feature updates like improved silicon and camera systems. While strong consensus reflects historical precedent, low-probability risks remain, including major component shortages, regulatory delays in key markets, or unforeseen technical hurdles that could push the timeline into 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$162,245Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Apple's consistent annual iPhone release cadence, with new models typically launching each September, underpins the 97% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 launch in 2026. Traders view this as a near-certain continuation of the company's hardware cycle, absent any official signals of disruption or skipped years. Supply chain reports and developer ecosystem activity further reinforce expectations of standard feature updates like improved silicon and camera systems. While strong consensus reflects historical precedent, low-probability risks remain, including major component shortages, regulatory delays in key markets, or unforeseen technical hurdles that could push the timeline into 2027.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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