Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 91.5% implied probability for Apple releasing the iPhone 18 in 2026, driven by recent supply chain leaks confirming production ramp-up for iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max models ahead of a traditional September launch. Credible reports from analysts like those at MacRumors and 9to5Mac highlight features such as variable aperture cameras entering mass production and design tweaks, aligning with Apple's unbroken 18-year annual iPhone release cadence despite rumors of delaying the base iPhone 18 to spring 2027 to prioritize Pro variants and a foldable debut. This skin-in-the-game sentiment underscores confidence in the Pro lineup satisfying market criteria, though realistic challenges include unforeseen supply disruptions, regulatory hurdles on new modem tech, or a rare strategic pivot away from numbered iterations. Watch for WWDC hints or further leaks as catalysts before fall.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui$85,183 Vol.
$85,183 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$85,183 Vol.
$85,183 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 91.5% implied probability for Apple releasing the iPhone 18 in 2026, driven by recent supply chain leaks confirming production ramp-up for iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max models ahead of a traditional September launch. Credible reports from analysts like those at MacRumors and 9to5Mac highlight features such as variable aperture cameras entering mass production and design tweaks, aligning with Apple's unbroken 18-year annual iPhone release cadence despite rumors of delaying the base iPhone 18 to spring 2027 to prioritize Pro variants and a foldable debut. This skin-in-the-game sentiment underscores confidence in the Pro lineup satisfying market criteria, though realistic challenges include unforeseen supply disruptions, regulatory hurdles on new modem tech, or a rare strategic pivot away from numbered iterations. Watch for WWDC hints or further leaks as catalysts before fall.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Pasar Dibuka: Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ET
Volume
$85,183Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 91.5% implied probability for Apple releasing the iPhone 18 in 2026, driven by recent supply chain leaks confirming production ramp-up for iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max models ahead of a traditional September launch. Credible reports from analysts like those at MacRumors and 9to5Mac highlight features such as variable aperture cameras entering mass production and design tweaks, aligning with Apple's unbroken 18-year annual iPhone release cadence despite rumors of delaying the base iPhone 18 to spring 2027 to prioritize Pro variants and a foldable debut. This skin-in-the-game sentiment underscores confidence in the Pro lineup satisfying market criteria, though realistic challenges include unforeseen supply disruptions, regulatory hurdles on new modem tech, or a rare strategic pivot away from numbered iterations. Watch for WWDC hints or further leaks as catalysts before fall.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$85,183Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 91.5% implied probability for Apple releasing the iPhone 18 in 2026, driven by recent supply chain leaks confirming production ramp-up for iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max models ahead of a traditional September launch. Credible reports from analysts like those at MacRumors and 9to5Mac highlight features such as variable aperture cameras entering mass production and design tweaks, aligning with Apple's unbroken 18-year annual iPhone release cadence despite rumors of delaying the base iPhone 18 to spring 2027 to prioritize Pro variants and a foldable debut. This skin-in-the-game sentiment underscores confidence in the Pro lineup satisfying market criteria, though realistic challenges include unforeseen supply disruptions, regulatory hurdles on new modem tech, or a rare strategic pivot away from numbered iterations. Watch for WWDC hints or further leaks as catalysts before fall.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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