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Teknologi·AI

AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?

Market icon
Teknologi·AI

AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?

Dec 31

Dec 31

22% peluang
Polymarket

$47,297 Vol.

22% peluang
Polymarket

$47,297 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state-of-the-art (SOTA) AI model achieves a score of 90% or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at a 78.5% implied probability for any state-of-the-art AI model reaching 90% on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2027, reflecting the wide gap between current capabilities and the target. OpenAI's GPT-5.4 holds the record at 47.6% overall and 38% on the hardest Tier 4, which features unsolved research-level math problems vetted by experts. Recent catalysts include GPT-5.4's March 2026 release, boosting scores from prior highs like GPT-5.2 Pro's 31% on Tier 4, and Anthropic's Opus 4.6 tying at 40% on Tiers 1-3—demonstrating scaling-driven gains but exposing limits in advanced mathematical reasoning. With eight months remaining, traders weigh potential next-gen releases against historical plateaus on unsaturated benchmarks, where dramatic leaps remain uncertain amid compute constraints and evaluation rigor.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state-of-the-art (SOTA) AI model achieves a score of 90% or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$47,297
Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Nov 12, 2025, 5:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state-of-the-art (SOTA) AI model achieves a score of 90% or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state-of-the-art (SOTA) AI model achieves a score of 90% or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at a 78.5% implied probability for any state-of-the-art AI model reaching 90% on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2027, reflecting the wide gap between current capabilities and the target. OpenAI's GPT-5.4 holds the record at 47.6% overall and 38% on the hardest Tier 4, which features unsolved research-level math problems vetted by experts. Recent catalysts include GPT-5.4's March 2026 release, boosting scores from prior highs like GPT-5.2 Pro's 31% on Tier 4, and Anthropic's Opus 4.6 tying at 40% on Tiers 1-3—demonstrating scaling-driven gains but exposing limits in advanced mathematical reasoning. With eight months remaining, traders weigh potential next-gen releases against historical plateaus on unsaturated benchmarks, where dramatic leaps remain uncertain amid compute constraints and evaluation rigor.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state-of-the-art (SOTA) AI model achieves a score of 90% or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$47,297
Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Nov 12, 2025, 5:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state-of-the-art (SOTA) AI model achieves a score of 90% or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham "Ya" atau "Tidak" berdasarkan apakah mereka yakin event ini akan terjadi. Probabilitas crowd-sourced saat ini adalah 22% untuk "Yes." Misalnya, jika "Ya" dihargai 22¢, pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 22% bahwa event ini akan terjadi. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

Per hari ini, "AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?" telah menghasilkan $47.3K dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada Nov 12, 2025. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.

Untuk trading di "AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?," cukup pilih apakah kamu yakin jawabannya "Ya" atau "Tidak." Setiap sisi memiliki harga saat ini yang mencerminkan probabilitas tersirat pasar. Masukkan jumlah kamu dan klik "Trade." Jika kamu membeli saham "Ya" dan hasilnya diselesaikan sebagai "Ya," setiap saham membayar $1. Jika diselesaikan sebagai "Tidak," saham "Ya" kamu bernilai $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Probabilitas saat ini untuk "AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?" adalah 22% untuk "Yes." Ini berarti keramaian Polymarket saat ini percaya ada peluang 22% bahwa event ini akan terjadi. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time berdasarkan trade aktual, memberikan sinyal yang terus diperbarui tentang apa yang diharapkan pasar.

Aturan resolusi untuk "AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.