Rapid progress on FrontierMath, with leading models like Claude Fable 5 reaching 87.8% and GPT-5.6 variants at 82-89% on the v2 benchmark updated in June 2026, underpins the 90.5% market-implied probability for an AI system hitting 90% before 2027. Trader consensus views continued scaling, improved reasoning techniques, and upcoming releases from major labs as likely to close the remaining gap within months. Realistic challenges include potential benchmark revisions that increase difficulty, performance plateaus on research-level problems, or slower-than-expected capability gains despite heavy investment in AI development.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui91% peluang
$117,335 Vol.
$117,335 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
91% peluang
$117,335 Vol.
$117,335 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state-of-the-art (SOTA) AI model achieves a score of 90% or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Rapid progress on FrontierMath, with leading models like Claude Fable 5 reaching 87.8% and GPT-5.6 variants at 82-89% on the v2 benchmark updated in June 2026, underpins the 90.5% market-implied probability for an AI system hitting 90% before 2027. Trader consensus views continued scaling, improved reasoning techniques, and upcoming releases from major labs as likely to close the remaining gap within months. Realistic challenges include potential benchmark revisions that increase difficulty, performance plateaus on research-level problems, or slower-than-expected capability gains despite heavy investment in AI development.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state-of-the-art (SOTA) AI model achieves a score of 90% or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Pasar Dibuka: Nov 12, 2025, 5:15 PM ET
Volume
$117,335Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Nov 12, 2025, 5:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state-of-the-art (SOTA) AI model achieves a score of 90% or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Rapid progress on FrontierMath, with leading models like Claude Fable 5 reaching 87.8% and GPT-5.6 variants at 82-89% on the v2 benchmark updated in June 2026, underpins the 90.5% market-implied probability for an AI system hitting 90% before 2027. Trader consensus views continued scaling, improved reasoning techniques, and upcoming releases from major labs as likely to close the remaining gap within months. Realistic challenges include potential benchmark revisions that increase difficulty, performance plateaus on research-level problems, or slower-than-expected capability gains despite heavy investment in AI development.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state-of-the-art (SOTA) AI model achieves a score of 90% or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$117,435Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Nov 12, 2025, 5:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Rapid progress on FrontierMath, with leading models like Claude Fable 5 reaching 87.8% and GPT-5.6 variants at 82-89% on the v2 benchmark updated in June 2026, underpins the 90.5% market-implied probability for an AI system hitting 90% before 2027. Trader consensus views continued scaling, improved reasoning techniques, and upcoming releases from major labs as likely to close the remaining gap within months. Realistic challenges include potential benchmark revisions that increase difficulty, performance plateaus on research-level problems, or slower-than-expected capability gains despite heavy investment in AI development.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui



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