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icon for AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?
Teknologi·AI

AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?

icon for AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?
Teknologi·AI

AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?

Dec 31

Dec 31

80% peluang
Polymarket

$118,543 Vol.

80% peluang
Polymarket

$118,543 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state-of-the-art (SOTA) AI model achieves a score of 90% or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Recent rapid gains on FrontierMath, Epoch AI’s benchmark of original research-level math problems, underpin the 80% market-implied odds for an AI model reaching 90% accuracy before 2027. GPT-5.6 Sol currently leads at 89% on the v2 Tiers 1-3 set as of August 2026, following steady climbs from roughly 50% in early 2026 and sub-2% at launch in late 2024. OpenAI’s successive GPT-5.6 variants, combined with Anthropic’s Claude Opus and Fable releases, reflect intensified scaling, test-time compute, and reasoning techniques that have compressed progress timelines. With only months remaining in 2026 and frontier labs iterating frequently, traders price in a strong likelihood of crossing the threshold, tempered by the possibility of incremental rather than breakthrough advances or benchmark adjustments.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state-of-the-art (SOTA) AI model achieves a score of 90% or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$118,543
Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Nov 12, 2025, 5:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state-of-the-art (SOTA) AI model achieves a score of 90% or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state-of-the-art (SOTA) AI model achieves a score of 90% or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Recent rapid gains on FrontierMath, Epoch AI’s benchmark of original research-level math problems, underpin the 80% market-implied odds for an AI model reaching 90% accuracy before 2027. GPT-5.6 Sol currently leads at 89% on the v2 Tiers 1-3 set as of August 2026, following steady climbs from roughly 50% in early 2026 and sub-2% at launch in late 2024. OpenAI’s successive GPT-5.6 variants, combined with Anthropic’s Claude Opus and Fable releases, reflect intensified scaling, test-time compute, and reasoning techniques that have compressed progress timelines. With only months remaining in 2026 and frontier labs iterating frequently, traders price in a strong likelihood of crossing the threshold, tempered by the possibility of incremental rather than breakthrough advances or benchmark adjustments.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state-of-the-art (SOTA) AI model achieves a score of 90% or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$118,543
Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Nov 12, 2025, 5:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state-of-the-art (SOTA) AI model achieves a score of 90% or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham "Ya" atau "Tidak" berdasarkan apakah mereka yakin event ini akan terjadi. Probabilitas crowd-sourced saat ini adalah 80% untuk "Yes." Misalnya, jika "Ya" dihargai 80¢, pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 80% bahwa event ini akan terjadi. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

Per hari ini, "AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?" telah menghasilkan $118.5K dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada Nov 12, 2025. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.

Untuk trading di "AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?," cukup pilih apakah kamu yakin jawabannya "Ya" atau "Tidak." Setiap sisi memiliki harga saat ini yang mencerminkan probabilitas tersirat pasar. Masukkan jumlah kamu dan klik "Trade." Jika kamu membeli saham "Ya" dan hasilnya diselesaikan sebagai "Ya," setiap saham membayar $1. Jika diselesaikan sebagai "Tidak," saham "Ya" kamu bernilai $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Probabilitas saat ini untuk "AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?" adalah 80% untuk "Yes." Ini berarti keramaian Polymarket saat ini percaya ada peluang 80% bahwa event ini akan terjadi. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time berdasarkan trade aktual, memberikan sinyal yang terus diperbarui tentang apa yang diharapkan pasar.

Aturan resolusi untuk "AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.