Google's Gemini 3.5 Pro remains in partner testing with no confirmed September release date, following repeated slips from the original June target after its May I/O announcement. Recent July updates introduced lighter Gemini 3.6 Flash and 3.5 Flash variants while noting the flagship Pro is still delayed and training has begun on Gemini 4, underscoring a cautious rollout pace amid internal refinements for agentic capabilities and reasoning benchmarks. This pattern of incremental Flash releases ahead of the Pro model supports the market-implied 54% probability of no launch by September 30, with the remaining probability spread thinly across individual September dates reflecting ongoing uncertainty around exact timing. Traders are watching for any official statements or API changelog entries that could accelerate or further postpone the frontier model.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiNo release by September 30 54%
September 23 6%
September 2 5%
September 20 5%
On or prior to September 1
3%
September 2
5%
September 3
5%
September 4
5%
September 5
5%
September 6
5%
September 7
5%
September 8
4%
September 9
4%
September 10
4%
September 11
5%
September 12
5%
September 13
4%
September 14
5%
September 15
5%
September 16
4%
September 17
3%
September 18
5%
September 19
3%
September 20
5%
September 21
5%
September 22
5%
September 23
6%
September 24
5%
September 25
5%
September 26
5%
September 27
5%
September 28
5%
September 29
3%
September 30
3%
No release by September 30
54%
No release by September 30 54%
September 23 6%
September 2 5%
September 20 5%
On or prior to September 1
3%
September 2
5%
September 3
5%
September 4
5%
September 5
5%
September 6
5%
September 7
5%
September 8
4%
September 9
4%
September 10
4%
September 11
5%
September 12
5%
September 13
4%
September 14
5%
September 15
5%
September 16
4%
September 17
3%
September 18
5%
September 19
3%
September 20
5%
September 21
5%
September 22
5%
September 23
6%
September 24
5%
September 25
5%
September 26
5%
September 27
5%
September 28
5%
September 29
3%
September 30
3%
No release by September 30
54%
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 17, 2026, 7:31 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Google's Gemini 3.5 Pro remains in partner testing with no confirmed September release date, following repeated slips from the original June target after its May I/O announcement. Recent July updates introduced lighter Gemini 3.6 Flash and 3.5 Flash variants while noting the flagship Pro is still delayed and training has begun on Gemini 4, underscoring a cautious rollout pace amid internal refinements for agentic capabilities and reasoning benchmarks. This pattern of incremental Flash releases ahead of the Pro model supports the market-implied 54% probability of no launch by September 30, with the remaining probability spread thinly across individual September dates reflecting ongoing uncertainty around exact timing. Traders are watching for any official statements or API changelog entries that could accelerate or further postpone the frontier model.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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