OpenAI's August 7 announcement that it is pausing select internal work on Astra—an upcoming frontier model demonstrating advanced agentic coding and cybersecurity capabilities—remains the dominant factor behind the tightly clustered Polymarket odds. The company classified the system under its Preparedness Framework as potentially reaching "critical" risk thresholds for autonomous exploits, triggering expanded safeguards and slower development timelines without a confirmed public release window. This recent development, following the model's August 1 reveal via solved open math problems, has traders balancing near-term September and October weeks against the 44% probability of no release by November 1. Key swing factors include the pace of security reviews and any follow-on capability demonstrations that could accelerate or further delay deployment.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiSeptember 28–October 4 44%
October 26–November 1 44%
September 14–20 44%
October 19–25 44%
BARU
BARU
Aug 31, 2026
Before August 31
44%
August 31–September 6
44%
September 7–13
44%
September 14–20
44%
September 21–27
44%
September 28–October 4
44%
October 5–11
43%
October 12–18
44%
October 19–25
44%
October 26–November 1
44%
Not released by November 1
44%
September 28–October 4 44%
October 26–November 1 44%
September 14–20 44%
October 19–25 44%
BARU
BARU
Aug 31, 2026
Before August 31
$0 Vol.
44%
August 31–September 6
$0 Vol.
44%
September 7–13
$0 Vol.
44%
September 14–20
$0 Vol.
44%
September 21–27
$0 Vol.
44%
September 28–October 4
$0 Vol.
44%
October 5–11
$0 Vol.
43%
October 12–18
$0 Vol.
44%
October 19–25
$0 Vol.
44%
October 26–November 1
$0 Vol.
44%
Not released by November 1
$0 Vol.
44%
On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed “Astra,” describing an internal version of Astra as its “next major model.” You can read more about that here: https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/.
This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which OpenAI releases "Astra" or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, and that model is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.
Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.OpenAI's August 7 announcement that it is pausing select internal work on Astra—an upcoming frontier model demonstrating advanced agentic coding and cybersecurity capabilities—remains the dominant factor behind the tightly clustered Polymarket odds. The company classified the system under its Preparedness Framework as potentially reaching "critical" risk thresholds for autonomous exploits, triggering expanded safeguards and slower development timelines without a confirmed public release window. This recent development, following the model's August 1 reveal via solved open math problems, has traders balancing near-term September and October weeks against the 44% probability of no release by November 1. Key swing factors include the pace of security reviews and any follow-on capability demonstrations that could accelerate or further delay deployment.
On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed “Astra,” describing an internal version of Astra as its “next major model.” You can read more about that here: https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/.
This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which OpenAI releases "Astra" or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, and that model is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.
Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which OpenAI releases "Astra" or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, and that model is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.
Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 14, 2026, 4:43 PM ET
Volume
$0Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 1, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 14, 2026, 4:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed “Astra,” describing an internal version of Astra as its “next major model.” You can read more about that here: https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/.
This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which OpenAI releases "Astra" or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, and that model is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.
Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.OpenAI's August 7 announcement that it is pausing select internal work on Astra—an upcoming frontier model demonstrating advanced agentic coding and cybersecurity capabilities—remains the dominant factor behind the tightly clustered Polymarket odds. The company classified the system under its Preparedness Framework as potentially reaching "critical" risk thresholds for autonomous exploits, triggering expanded safeguards and slower development timelines without a confirmed public release window. This recent development, following the model's August 1 reveal via solved open math problems, has traders balancing near-term September and October weeks against the 44% probability of no release by November 1. Key swing factors include the pace of security reviews and any follow-on capability demonstrations that could accelerate or further delay deployment.
On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed “Astra,” describing an internal version of Astra as its “next major model.” You can read more about that here: https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/.
This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which OpenAI releases "Astra" or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, and that model is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.
Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which OpenAI releases "Astra" or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, and that model is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.
Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$0Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 1, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 14, 2026, 4:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...OpenAI's August 7 announcement that it is pausing select internal work on Astra—an upcoming frontier model demonstrating advanced agentic coding and cybersecurity capabilities—remains the dominant factor behind the tightly clustered Polymarket odds. The company classified the system under its Preparedness Framework as potentially reaching "critical" risk thresholds for autonomous exploits, triggering expanded safeguards and slower development timelines without a confirmed public release window. This recent development, following the model's August 1 reveal via solved open math problems, has traders balancing near-term September and October weeks against the 44% probability of no release by November 1. Key swing factors include the pace of security reviews and any follow-on capability demonstrations that could accelerate or further delay deployment.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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