OpenAI's rapid revenue expansion to roughly $2 billion monthly and $40 billion annualized run rate, alongside its March 2026 $852 billion post-money private valuation, underpins trader consensus favoring elevated IPO market caps near or above $1.5 trillion. Sam Altman's reported insistence on a $1 trillion minimum threshold, combined with AI sector multiples and growth projections, supports the 40.8% implied probability on the 1.5T+ outcome, while the 13.8% chance of no IPO by end-2027 reflects recent signals of a potential 2027 listing delay after the confidential S-1 filing. Key upcoming catalysts include further funding rounds, data-center commitments, and any shifts in competitive dynamics with rivals like Anthropic that could recalibrate market-implied odds.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui1.5T+ 40.7%
1T–1.25T 20.6%
1.25T–1.5T 20%
No IPO by December 31, 2027 13.8%
$114,058 Vol.
$114,058 Vol.
Dec 30, 2027
<500B
<1%
500–750B
1%
750B–1T
9%
1T–1.25T
21%
1.25T–1.5T
20%
1.5T+
41%
No IPO by December 31, 2027
14%
1.5T+ 40.7%
1T–1.25T 20.6%
1.25T–1.5T 20%
No IPO by December 31, 2027 13.8%
$114,058 Vol.
$114,058 Vol.
Dec 30, 2027
<500B
$8,557 Vol.
<1%
500–750B
$10,396 Vol.
1%
750B–1T
$11,919 Vol.
9%
1T–1.25T
$17,239 Vol.
21%
1.25T–1.5T
$10,878 Vol.
20%
1.5T+
$30,209 Vol.
41%
No IPO by December 31, 2027
$24,861 Vol.
14%
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.OpenAI's rapid revenue expansion to roughly $2 billion monthly and $40 billion annualized run rate, alongside its March 2026 $852 billion post-money private valuation, underpins trader consensus favoring elevated IPO market caps near or above $1.5 trillion. Sam Altman's reported insistence on a $1 trillion minimum threshold, combined with AI sector multiples and growth projections, supports the 40.8% implied probability on the 1.5T+ outcome, while the 13.8% chance of no IPO by end-2027 reflects recent signals of a potential 2027 listing delay after the confidential S-1 filing. Key upcoming catalysts include further funding rounds, data-center commitments, and any shifts in competitive dynamics with rivals like Anthropic that could recalibrate market-implied odds.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Pasar Dibuka: Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ET
Volume
$114,058Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.OpenAI's rapid revenue expansion to roughly $2 billion monthly and $40 billion annualized run rate, alongside its March 2026 $852 billion post-money private valuation, underpins trader consensus favoring elevated IPO market caps near or above $1.5 trillion. Sam Altman's reported insistence on a $1 trillion minimum threshold, combined with AI sector multiples and growth projections, supports the 40.8% implied probability on the 1.5T+ outcome, while the 13.8% chance of no IPO by end-2027 reflects recent signals of a potential 2027 listing delay after the confidential S-1 filing. Key upcoming catalysts include further funding rounds, data-center commitments, and any shifts in competitive dynamics with rivals like Anthropic that could recalibrate market-implied odds.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volume
$114,058Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...OpenAI's rapid revenue expansion to roughly $2 billion monthly and $40 billion annualized run rate, alongside its March 2026 $852 billion post-money private valuation, underpins trader consensus favoring elevated IPO market caps near or above $1.5 trillion. Sam Altman's reported insistence on a $1 trillion minimum threshold, combined with AI sector multiples and growth projections, supports the 40.8% implied probability on the 1.5T+ outcome, while the 13.8% chance of no IPO by end-2027 reflects recent signals of a potential 2027 listing delay after the confidential S-1 filing. Key upcoming catalysts include further funding rounds, data-center commitments, and any shifts in competitive dynamics with rivals like Anthropic that could recalibrate market-implied odds.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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