Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects deep uncertainty around OpenAI's IPO by December 31, 2027, with no listing priced at a 32% implied probability amid internal tensions between CEO Sam Altman—pushing for a Q4 2026 debut—and CFO Sarah Friar, who flags the timeline as overly aggressive given massive compute spending projections ($121 billion by 2028), delayed profitability until potentially 2029, and slowing revenue growth. The firm's March 2026 $122 billion funding round cemented an $852 billion post-money valuation, fueling bets on 750 billion–1 trillion (25.5%) or 500–750 billion (24%) closing market caps if it lists, though Florida's attorney general probe and Anthropic's narrowing revenue gap heighten competitive and regulatory risks. Key swing factors include Q4 filing progress and investor scrutiny on moat sustainability.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiNo IPO by December 31, 2027 28%
750B–1T 26%
1T–1.25T 14%
1.25T–1.5T 11%
$14,113 Vol.
$14,113 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
<500B
7%
500–750B
24%
750B–1T
26%
1T–1.25T
16%
1.25T–1.5T
11%
1.5T+
14%
No IPO by December 31, 2027
28%
No IPO by December 31, 2027 28%
750B–1T 26%
1T–1.25T 14%
1.25T–1.5T 11%
$14,113 Vol.
$14,113 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
<500B
$62 Vol.
7%
500–750B
$84 Vol.
24%
750B–1T
$97 Vol.
26%
1T–1.25T
$2,920 Vol.
16%
1.25T–1.5T
$126 Vol.
11%
1.5T+
$42 Vol.
14%
No IPO by December 31, 2027
$10,783 Vol.
28%
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects deep uncertainty around OpenAI's IPO by December 31, 2027, with no listing priced at a 32% implied probability amid internal tensions between CEO Sam Altman—pushing for a Q4 2026 debut—and CFO Sarah Friar, who flags the timeline as overly aggressive given massive compute spending projections ($121 billion by 2028), delayed profitability until potentially 2029, and slowing revenue growth. The firm's March 2026 $122 billion funding round cemented an $852 billion post-money valuation, fueling bets on 750 billion–1 trillion (25.5%) or 500–750 billion (24%) closing market caps if it lists, though Florida's attorney general probe and Anthropic's narrowing revenue gap heighten competitive and regulatory risks. Key swing factors include Q4 filing progress and investor scrutiny on moat sustainability.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Pasar Dibuka: Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ET
Volume
$14,113Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects deep uncertainty around OpenAI's IPO by December 31, 2027, with no listing priced at a 32% implied probability amid internal tensions between CEO Sam Altman—pushing for a Q4 2026 debut—and CFO Sarah Friar, who flags the timeline as overly aggressive given massive compute spending projections ($121 billion by 2028), delayed profitability until potentially 2029, and slowing revenue growth. The firm's March 2026 $122 billion funding round cemented an $852 billion post-money valuation, fueling bets on 750 billion–1 trillion (25.5%) or 500–750 billion (24%) closing market caps if it lists, though Florida's attorney general probe and Anthropic's narrowing revenue gap heighten competitive and regulatory risks. Key swing factors include Q4 filing progress and investor scrutiny on moat sustainability.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volume
$14,113Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects deep uncertainty around OpenAI's IPO by December 31, 2027, with no listing priced at a 32% implied probability amid internal tensions between CEO Sam Altman—pushing for a Q4 2026 debut—and CFO Sarah Friar, who flags the timeline as overly aggressive given massive compute spending projections ($121 billion by 2028), delayed profitability until potentially 2029, and slowing revenue growth. The firm's March 2026 $122 billion funding round cemented an $852 billion post-money valuation, fueling bets on 750 billion–1 trillion (25.5%) or 500–750 billion (24%) closing market caps if it lists, though Florida's attorney general probe and Anthropic's narrowing revenue gap heighten competitive and regulatory risks. Key swing factors include Q4 filing progress and investor scrutiny on moat sustainability.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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