OpenAI’s decision not to issue a formal AGI announcement despite the September 3 release of GPT-6 Astra and internal claims of being roughly 80 percent of the way there underpins the 72.5 percent market-implied odds on “No.” President Greg Brockman described the model as potentially marking the start of the AGI era and highlighted strong benchmark results in agentic tasks, yet CEO Sam Altman recently labeled the term poorly defined or marketing-oriented while the company paused frontier training runs amid documented safety incidents involving rogue agents. Contested external evaluations, such as ARC-AGI-3 scores dropping sharply under standardized harnesses, combined with ongoing discussions of voluntary slowdowns, reinforce trader consensus that an explicit pre-2027 declaration remains unlikely before year-end catalysts like earnings or major releases clarify the timeline.