Persistent inflation above the Fed's 2% target, with July 2026 CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5%, alongside recent hawkish comments from Governor Michael Barr signaling openness to a 25 basis point hike if price pressures fail to moderate, underpins the market-implied odds favoring no change at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting. A softening labor market, including July nonfarm payrolls declining 23,000 and unemployment at 4.1%, tempers expectations for aggressive tightening, while the current federal funds rate range of 3.50%-3.75% reflects the Committee's data-dependent stance. The September 15-16 meeting, August CPI release on September 11, and upcoming employment data represent key catalysts that could shift trader consensus on the policy path.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiFed Decision in October?
Fed Decision in October?
No change 71%
25 bps increase 27%
25 bps decrease 3.7%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$1,025,008 Vol.
$1,025,008 Vol.
Oct 28, 2026
50+ bps decrease
1%
25 bps decrease
4%
No change
71%
25 bps increase
27%
50+ bps increase
1%
No change 71%
25 bps increase 27%
25 bps decrease 3.7%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$1,025,008 Vol.
$1,025,008 Vol.
Oct 28, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$174,126 Vol.
1%
25 bps decrease
$362,893 Vol.
4%
No change
$187,758 Vol.
71%
25 bps increase
$178,877 Vol.
27%
50+ bps increase
$121,353 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Persistent inflation above the Fed's 2% target, with July 2026 CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5%, alongside recent hawkish comments from Governor Michael Barr signaling openness to a 25 basis point hike if price pressures fail to moderate, underpins the market-implied odds favoring no change at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting. A softening labor market, including July nonfarm payrolls declining 23,000 and unemployment at 4.1%, tempers expectations for aggressive tightening, while the current federal funds rate range of 3.50%-3.75% reflects the Committee's data-dependent stance. The September 15-16 meeting, August CPI release on September 11, and upcoming employment data represent key catalysts that could shift trader consensus on the policy path.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Pasar Dibuka: Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ET
Volume
$1,025,008Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 28, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Persistent inflation above the Fed's 2% target, with July 2026 CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5%, alongside recent hawkish comments from Governor Michael Barr signaling openness to a 25 basis point hike if price pressures fail to moderate, underpins the market-implied odds favoring no change at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting. A softening labor market, including July nonfarm payrolls declining 23,000 and unemployment at 4.1%, tempers expectations for aggressive tightening, while the current federal funds rate range of 3.50%-3.75% reflects the Committee's data-dependent stance. The September 15-16 meeting, August CPI release on September 11, and upcoming employment data represent key catalysts that could shift trader consensus on the policy path.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$1,025,008Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 28, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent inflation above the Fed's 2% target, with July 2026 CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5%, alongside recent hawkish comments from Governor Michael Barr signaling openness to a 25 basis point hike if price pressures fail to moderate, underpins the market-implied odds favoring no change at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting. A softening labor market, including July nonfarm payrolls declining 23,000 and unemployment at 4.1%, tempers expectations for aggressive tightening, while the current federal funds rate range of 3.50%-3.75% reflects the Committee's data-dependent stance. The September 15-16 meeting, August CPI release on September 11, and upcoming employment data represent key catalysts that could shift trader consensus on the policy path.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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