Current forecast models from the China Meteorological Administration and international ensembles converge on a daily maximum of 32°C for Chongqing on May 21, driven by persistent warm, humid air advection under partly cloudy skies and light southerly flow across the Sichuan Basin. Historical late-May observations show typical highs of 27–30°C, with occasional peaks to 32–34°C during stable high-pressure setups, providing climatological support for the market-implied near-certainty on 32°C. Minor model spread in afternoon boundary-layer mixing or localized convection could allow a brief excursion above this threshold, yet resolution criteria tied to official station readings at 14:00 local time limit upside risk unless rapid warming or clear-sky enhancement develops in the final hours.