Recent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Spain’s AEMET show a consensus maximum temperature of 33–34°C for Madrid on August 4, driven by a stable high-pressure ridge promoting subsidence, clear skies, and strong daytime solar heating in the city’s continental climate. This aligns with current surface observations and short-range model runs indicating light winds and minimal cloud cover, with limited potential for convective cooling. Historical August averages near 32–33°C provide climatological context, while the market’s heavy weighting on 34°C (54%) and 33°C (31.5%) reflects trader assessment of these stable conditions two days ahead of resolution. Minor upside risk to 35°C exists if ridge strength increases slightly, but model agreement keeps higher outcomes below 15% combined. Updated model runs and AEMET briefings in the next 24–48 hours will refine probabilities before the daily maximum is recorded.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Madrid on August 4?
Highest temperature in Madrid on August 4?
34°C 54%
33°C 32%
35°C 13%
32°C 4%
BARU
BARU
Aug 4, 2026
29°C or below
<1%
30°C
1%
31°C
3%
32°C
4%
33°C
32%
34°C
54%
35°C
13%
36°C
4%
37°C
2%
38°C
1%
39°C or higher
<1%
34°C 54%
33°C 32%
35°C 13%
32°C 4%
BARU
BARU
Aug 4, 2026
29°C or below
$126 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$38 Vol.
1%
31°C
$24 Vol.
3%
32°C
$126 Vol.
4%
33°C
$862 Vol.
32%
34°C
$424 Vol.
54%
35°C
$355 Vol.
13%
36°C
$210 Vol.
4%
37°C
$142 Vol.
2%
38°C
$73 Vol.
1%
39°C or higher
$363 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Spain’s AEMET show a consensus maximum temperature of 33–34°C for Madrid on August 4, driven by a stable high-pressure ridge promoting subsidence, clear skies, and strong daytime solar heating in the city’s continental climate. This aligns with current surface observations and short-range model runs indicating light winds and minimal cloud cover, with limited potential for convective cooling. Historical August averages near 32–33°C provide climatological context, while the market’s heavy weighting on 34°C (54%) and 33°C (31.5%) reflects trader assessment of these stable conditions two days ahead of resolution. Minor upside risk to 35°C exists if ridge strength increases slightly, but model agreement keeps higher outcomes below 15% combined. Updated model runs and AEMET briefings in the next 24–48 hours will refine probabilities before the daily maximum is recorded.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 2, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$2,742Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 4, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 2, 2026, 12:04 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Spain’s AEMET show a consensus maximum temperature of 33–34°C for Madrid on August 4, driven by a stable high-pressure ridge promoting subsidence, clear skies, and strong daytime solar heating in the city’s continental climate. This aligns with current surface observations and short-range model runs indicating light winds and minimal cloud cover, with limited potential for convective cooling. Historical August averages near 32–33°C provide climatological context, while the market’s heavy weighting on 34°C (54%) and 33°C (31.5%) reflects trader assessment of these stable conditions two days ahead of resolution. Minor upside risk to 35°C exists if ridge strength increases slightly, but model agreement keeps higher outcomes below 15% combined. Updated model runs and AEMET briefings in the next 24–48 hours will refine probabilities before the daily maximum is recorded.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,742Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 4, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 2, 2026, 12:04 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Spain’s AEMET show a consensus maximum temperature of 33–34°C for Madrid on August 4, driven by a stable high-pressure ridge promoting subsidence, clear skies, and strong daytime solar heating in the city’s continental climate. This aligns with current surface observations and short-range model runs indicating light winds and minimal cloud cover, with limited potential for convective cooling. Historical August averages near 32–33°C provide climatological context, while the market’s heavy weighting on 34°C (54%) and 33°C (31.5%) reflects trader assessment of these stable conditions two days ahead of resolution. Minor upside risk to 35°C exists if ridge strength increases slightly, but model agreement keeps higher outcomes below 15% combined. Updated model runs and AEMET briefings in the next 24–48 hours will refine probabilities before the daily maximum is recorded.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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