Recent numerical weather prediction consensus from global models points to a maximum temperature of 19–20°C in Warsaw on August 23, driven by a cool, stable air mass with moderate westerly flow and limited insolation under partly cloudy skies. Traders favor these outcomes because short-range forecasts show daytime highs constrained by advection of cooler maritime air and minimal daytime heating, consistent with observed trends after recent frontal passages. Differentiation between 19°C and 20°C hinges on minor uncertainties in model timing of cloud breaks and boundary-layer mixing, which could add or subtract 1°C of surface warming; higher outcomes like 21°C would require stronger subsidence or clearer conditions not currently indicated. With resolution imminent, updated model runs will likely tighten this narrow range.