Recent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and national meteorological services indicate a likely maximum of 21–22°C in Warsaw on August 22, driven by increased cloud cover, scattered showers, and a shift to cooler northwesterly flow. These conditions suppress daytime heating compared with recent warmer spells, aligning with the market-implied probabilities that place 21°C at 35.5% and adjacent values close behind. Model consensus shows modest uncertainty tied to exact rainfall timing and boundary-layer moisture, with limited potential for brief clearing that could push readings to 23°C or higher. Updated runs ahead of the event will refine the distribution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Warsaw on August 22?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on August 22?
21°C 36%
22°C 19%
20°C 16%
23°C 12%
BARU
BARU
Aug 22, 2026
16°C or below
<1%
17°C
1%
18°C
2%
19°C
7%
20°C
16%
21°C
36%
22°C
19%
23°C
12%
24°C
6%
25°C
1%
26°C or higher
1%
21°C 36%
22°C 19%
20°C 16%
23°C 12%
BARU
BARU
Aug 22, 2026
16°C or below
$0 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$0 Vol.
1%
18°C
$50 Vol.
2%
19°C
$10 Vol.
7%
20°C
$61 Vol.
16%
21°C
$11 Vol.
36%
22°C
$52 Vol.
19%
23°C
$0 Vol.
12%
24°C
$20 Vol.
6%
25°C
$100 Vol.
1%
26°C or higher
$115 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and national meteorological services indicate a likely maximum of 21–22°C in Warsaw on August 22, driven by increased cloud cover, scattered showers, and a shift to cooler northwesterly flow. These conditions suppress daytime heating compared with recent warmer spells, aligning with the market-implied probabilities that place 21°C at 35.5% and adjacent values close behind. Model consensus shows modest uncertainty tied to exact rainfall timing and boundary-layer moisture, with limited potential for brief clearing that could push readings to 23°C or higher. Updated runs ahead of the event will refine the distribution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 20, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$419Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 22, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 20, 2026, 12:57 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and national meteorological services indicate a likely maximum of 21–22°C in Warsaw on August 22, driven by increased cloud cover, scattered showers, and a shift to cooler northwesterly flow. These conditions suppress daytime heating compared with recent warmer spells, aligning with the market-implied probabilities that place 21°C at 35.5% and adjacent values close behind. Model consensus shows modest uncertainty tied to exact rainfall timing and boundary-layer moisture, with limited potential for brief clearing that could push readings to 23°C or higher. Updated runs ahead of the event will refine the distribution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$419Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 22, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 20, 2026, 12:57 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and national meteorological services indicate a likely maximum of 21–22°C in Warsaw on August 22, driven by increased cloud cover, scattered showers, and a shift to cooler northwesterly flow. These conditions suppress daytime heating compared with recent warmer spells, aligning with the market-implied probabilities that place 21°C at 35.5% and adjacent values close behind. Model consensus shows modest uncertainty tied to exact rainfall timing and boundary-layer moisture, with limited potential for brief clearing that could push readings to 23°C or higher. Updated runs ahead of the event will refine the distribution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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