Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate a likely daily maximum of 22–24°C in Moscow on August 22, aligning with the tightly clustered market odds near those levels. This range reflects typical late-summer cooling as solar insolation declines and northerly flow strengthens, tempered by variable high-pressure ridging that can enhance daytime radiative heating. Key differentiating factors include afternoon cloud cover amounts, which reduce surface warming, and the precise timing of any weak frontal passages that alter boundary-layer mixing and wind speeds. Official guidance from agencies like Roshydromet shows slight model spread in these details, sustaining trader uncertainty among the leading outcomes while downweighting extremes outside climatological norms for the period.