US President Donald Trump extended the Pakistan-mediated ceasefire with Iran, originally set for two weeks starting April 8, 2026, to allow time for proposals on ending hostilities, including access to the Strait of Hormuz and nuclear issues. The truce has held amid intermittent violations, such as May exchanges of fire near the strait and limited Iranian missile activity, while negotiations remain deadlocked over Tehran’s 14-point demands and Washington’s insistence on verifiable concessions. Traders assess continuation risks through ongoing diplomatic signals, potential escalations tied to naval movements, and upcoming mediator efforts, with the fragile status reflecting both sides’ calculations to avoid full resumption of direct conflict.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiBARU
$1,227,020 Vol.
May 20
100%
May 21
97%
May 22
90%
May 24
84%
May 27
78%
May 31
68%
June 7
64%
June 15
57%
June 30
43%
July 31
39%
December 31
35%
$1,227,020 Vol.
May 20
$235,257 Vol.
100%
May 21
$365,082 Vol.
97%
May 22
$192,823 Vol.
90%
May 24
$203,515 Vol.
84%
May 27
$45,115 Vol.
78%
May 31
$81,525 Vol.
68%
June 7
$20,046 Vol.
64%
June 15
$16,622 Vol.
57%
June 30
$23,692 Vol.
43%
July 31
$10,767 Vol.
39%
December 31
$35,975 Vol.
35%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US President Donald Trump extended the Pakistan-mediated ceasefire with Iran, originally set for two weeks starting April 8, 2026, to allow time for proposals on ending hostilities, including access to the Strait of Hormuz and nuclear issues. The truce has held amid intermittent violations, such as May exchanges of fire near the strait and limited Iranian missile activity, while negotiations remain deadlocked over Tehran’s 14-point demands and Washington’s insistence on verifiable concessions. Traders assess continuation risks through ongoing diplomatic signals, potential escalations tied to naval movements, and upcoming mediator efforts, with the fragile status reflecting both sides’ calculations to avoid full resumption of direct conflict.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Pasar Dibuka: May 19, 2026, 11:20 PM ET
Volume
$1,227,020Pasar Dibuka
May 19, 2026, 11:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US President Donald Trump extended the Pakistan-mediated ceasefire with Iran, originally set for two weeks starting April 8, 2026, to allow time for proposals on ending hostilities, including access to the Strait of Hormuz and nuclear issues. The truce has held amid intermittent violations, such as May exchanges of fire near the strait and limited Iranian missile activity, while negotiations remain deadlocked over Tehran’s 14-point demands and Washington’s insistence on verifiable concessions. Traders assess continuation risks through ongoing diplomatic signals, potential escalations tied to naval movements, and upcoming mediator efforts, with the fragile status reflecting both sides’ calculations to avoid full resumption of direct conflict.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,227,020Pasar Dibuka
May 19, 2026, 11:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US President Donald Trump extended the Pakistan-mediated ceasefire with Iran, originally set for two weeks starting April 8, 2026, to allow time for proposals on ending hostilities, including access to the Strait of Hormuz and nuclear issues. The truce has held amid intermittent violations, such as May exchanges of fire near the strait and limited Iranian missile activity, while negotiations remain deadlocked over Tehran’s 14-point demands and Washington’s insistence on verifiable concessions. Traders assess continuation risks through ongoing diplomatic signals, potential escalations tied to naval movements, and upcoming mediator efforts, with the fragile status reflecting both sides’ calculations to avoid full resumption of direct conflict.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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