Current forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and models indicate Tokyo's July 6 low will likely fall between 20–22°C amid lingering tsuyu (plum rain) conditions, with patchy rain, high humidity near 75–80%, and daytime highs around 25°C limiting nocturnal radiative cooling. These factors, combined with urban heat retention and above-normal sea-surface temperatures, support the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 18–23°C. Minor differences in cloud cover duration, wind patterns, or precipitation timing across ensemble runs can shift the exact minimum by 1–2°C, explaining why outcomes like 21°C (40%) and 19–22°C (31–35%) remain closely matched with no dominant signal yet. Updated model guidance and official briefings in the next 48 hours will likely narrow this range before resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiLowest temperature in Tokyo on July 6?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on July 6?
21°C 100.0%
16°C or below <1%
17°C <1%
18°C <1%
$28,576 Vol.
$28,576 Vol.
Jul 6, 2026
16°C or below
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
Yes
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C or higher
No
21°C 100.0%
16°C or below <1%
17°C <1%
18°C <1%
$28,576 Vol.
$28,576 Vol.
Jul 6, 2026
16°C or below
$1,495 Vol.
No
17°C
$2,029 Vol.
No
18°C
$1,254 Vol.
No
19°C
$1,414 Vol.
No
20°C
$2,528 Vol.
No
21°C
$3,456 Vol.
Yes
22°C
$4,642 Vol.
No
23°C
$3,580 Vol.
No
24°C
$2,773 Vol.
No
25°C
$3,044 Vol.
No
26°C or higher
$2,361 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and models indicate Tokyo's July 6 low will likely fall between 20–22°C amid lingering tsuyu (plum rain) conditions, with patchy rain, high humidity near 75–80%, and daytime highs around 25°C limiting nocturnal radiative cooling. These factors, combined with urban heat retention and above-normal sea-surface temperatures, support the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 18–23°C. Minor differences in cloud cover duration, wind patterns, or precipitation timing across ensemble runs can shift the exact minimum by 1–2°C, explaining why outcomes like 21°C (40%) and 19–22°C (31–35%) remain closely matched with no dominant signal yet. Updated model guidance and official briefings in the next 48 hours will likely narrow this range before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Jul 4, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$28,576Tanggal Berakhir
Jul 6, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 4, 2026, 12:30 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Hasil diajukan: No
Tidak ada sengketa
Hasil akhir: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and models indicate Tokyo's July 6 low will likely fall between 20–22°C amid lingering tsuyu (plum rain) conditions, with patchy rain, high humidity near 75–80%, and daytime highs around 25°C limiting nocturnal radiative cooling. These factors, combined with urban heat retention and above-normal sea-surface temperatures, support the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 18–23°C. Minor differences in cloud cover duration, wind patterns, or precipitation timing across ensemble runs can shift the exact minimum by 1–2°C, explaining why outcomes like 21°C (40%) and 19–22°C (31–35%) remain closely matched with no dominant signal yet. Updated model guidance and official briefings in the next 48 hours will likely narrow this range before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$28,576Tanggal Berakhir
Jul 6, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 4, 2026, 12:30 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Hasil diajukan: No
Tidak ada sengketa
Hasil akhir: No
Current forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and models indicate Tokyo's July 6 low will likely fall between 20–22°C amid lingering tsuyu (plum rain) conditions, with patchy rain, high humidity near 75–80%, and daytime highs around 25°C limiting nocturnal radiative cooling. These factors, combined with urban heat retention and above-normal sea-surface temperatures, support the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 18–23°C. Minor differences in cloud cover duration, wind patterns, or precipitation timing across ensemble runs can shift the exact minimum by 1–2°C, explaining why outcomes like 21°C (40%) and 19–22°C (31–35%) remain closely matched with no dominant signal yet. Updated model guidance and official briefings in the next 48 hours will likely narrow this range before resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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