Trader consensus assigning an 86% implied probability to “No” for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026 stems primarily from the continued absence of any Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, VEI 6+ volcanic eruption, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or 10 kt+ meteor strike through late September. Historical baselines show these thresholds occur infrequently: Category 5 U.S. landfalls average fewer than one per decade in recent climatology, while VEI 6+ eruptions and 8.5+ quakes each occur globally at rates supporting low single-digit annual odds. With the Atlantic hurricane season nearing its end and no elevated seismic or volcanic alerts from USGS or NOAA monitoring, updated agency data reinforce the current market-implied odds absent sudden model shifts or new observations in the final quarter.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiNatural Disaster in 2026?
Natural Disaster in 2026?
14% peluang
$246,943 Vol.
$246,943 Vol.
Feb 28, 2027
14% peluang
$246,943 Vol.
$246,943 Vol.
Feb 28, 2027
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdfTrader consensus assigning an 86% implied probability to “No” for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026 stems primarily from the continued absence of any Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, VEI 6+ volcanic eruption, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or 10 kt+ meteor strike through late September. Historical baselines show these thresholds occur infrequently: Category 5 U.S. landfalls average fewer than one per decade in recent climatology, while VEI 6+ eruptions and 8.5+ quakes each occur globally at rates supporting low single-digit annual odds. With the Atlantic hurricane season nearing its end and no elevated seismic or volcanic alerts from USGS or NOAA monitoring, updated agency data reinforce the current market-implied odds absent sudden model shifts or new observations in the final quarter.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Pasar Dibuka: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Volume
$246,943Tanggal Berakhir
Mar 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070be91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdfTrader consensus assigning an 86% implied probability to “No” for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026 stems primarily from the continued absence of any Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, VEI 6+ volcanic eruption, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or 10 kt+ meteor strike through late September. Historical baselines show these thresholds occur infrequently: Category 5 U.S. landfalls average fewer than one per decade in recent climatology, while VEI 6+ eruptions and 8.5+ quakes each occur globally at rates supporting low single-digit annual odds. With the Atlantic hurricane season nearing its end and no elevated seismic or volcanic alerts from USGS or NOAA monitoring, updated agency data reinforce the current market-implied odds absent sudden model shifts or new observations in the final quarter.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Volume
$0Tanggal Berakhir
Mar 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070be91...Trader consensus assigning an 86% implied probability to “No” for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026 stems primarily from the continued absence of any Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, VEI 6+ volcanic eruption, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or 10 kt+ meteor strike through late September. Historical baselines show these thresholds occur infrequently: Category 5 U.S. landfalls average fewer than one per decade in recent climatology, while VEI 6+ eruptions and 8.5+ quakes each occur globally at rates supporting low single-digit annual odds. With the Atlantic hurricane season nearing its end and no elevated seismic or volcanic alerts from USGS or NOAA monitoring, updated agency data reinforce the current market-implied odds absent sudden model shifts or new observations in the final quarter.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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