No known near-Earth objects large enough to produce a 5-kiloton or greater airburst are on collision trajectories for 2026, according to NASA’s CNEOS Sentry monitoring and ESA risk lists, which show zero significant impact probabilities this year. Historical impact frequencies place 5 kt bolides on decadal rather than annual timescales, consistent with objects several meters across entering the atmosphere. Recent 2026 fireball reports, including events near Cleveland and in Massachusetts, remain well below the energy threshold despite elevated witness counts that reflect improved detection networks rather than heightened hazard. Ongoing surveys could still reveal small undetected impactors before year-end, yet current orbital data and base rates sustain trader consensus favoring no qualifying strike at the prevailing 72.5% implied probability for “No.”
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui5kt meteor strike in 2026?
5kt meteor strike in 2026?
$306,607 Vol.
$306,607 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$306,607 Vol.
$306,607 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No known near-Earth objects large enough to produce a 5-kiloton or greater airburst are on collision trajectories for 2026, according to NASA’s CNEOS Sentry monitoring and ESA risk lists, which show zero significant impact probabilities this year. Historical impact frequencies place 5 kt bolides on decadal rather than annual timescales, consistent with objects several meters across entering the atmosphere. Recent 2026 fireball reports, including events near Cleveland and in Massachusetts, remain well below the energy threshold despite elevated witness counts that reflect improved detection networks rather than heightened hazard. Ongoing surveys could still reveal small undetected impactors before year-end, yet current orbital data and base rates sustain trader consensus favoring no qualifying strike at the prevailing 72.5% implied probability for “No.”
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Pasar Dibuka: Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
Volume
$306,607Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No known near-Earth objects large enough to produce a 5-kiloton or greater airburst are on collision trajectories for 2026, according to NASA’s CNEOS Sentry monitoring and ESA risk lists, which show zero significant impact probabilities this year. Historical impact frequencies place 5 kt bolides on decadal rather than annual timescales, consistent with objects several meters across entering the atmosphere. Recent 2026 fireball reports, including events near Cleveland and in Massachusetts, remain well below the energy threshold despite elevated witness counts that reflect improved detection networks rather than heightened hazard. Ongoing surveys could still reveal small undetected impactors before year-end, yet current orbital data and base rates sustain trader consensus favoring no qualifying strike at the prevailing 72.5% implied probability for “No.”
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$306,607Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...No known near-Earth objects large enough to produce a 5-kiloton or greater airburst are on collision trajectories for 2026, according to NASA’s CNEOS Sentry monitoring and ESA risk lists, which show zero significant impact probabilities this year. Historical impact frequencies place 5 kt bolides on decadal rather than annual timescales, consistent with objects several meters across entering the atmosphere. Recent 2026 fireball reports, including events near Cleveland and in Massachusetts, remain well below the energy threshold despite elevated witness counts that reflect improved detection networks rather than heightened hazard. Ongoing surveys could still reveal small undetected impactors before year-end, yet current orbital data and base rates sustain trader consensus favoring no qualifying strike at the prevailing 72.5% implied probability for “No.”
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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