NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies continuously scans known near-Earth objects via the Sentry impact-monitoring system, with no objects currently showing more than negligible collision probabilities through 2026 or beyond. Close approaches by plane- or house-sized asteroids remain distant misses, and recent small-object detections, including 2026 EG1 and 2026 JH2, confirm safe flybys without atmospheric entry risks matching 5kt energy thresholds. While undiscovered meter-scale bodies contribute baseline uncertainty and Q1 2026 saw elevated fireball reports, ground-impact rates for this size class remain statistically low annually. Traders weigh these verified monitoring results against residual discovery gaps, supporting the current 72.5% No consensus ahead of further catalog updates.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui5kt meteor strike in 2026?
5kt meteor strike in 2026?
$306,607 Vol.
$306,607 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$306,607 Vol.
$306,607 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies continuously scans known near-Earth objects via the Sentry impact-monitoring system, with no objects currently showing more than negligible collision probabilities through 2026 or beyond. Close approaches by plane- or house-sized asteroids remain distant misses, and recent small-object detections, including 2026 EG1 and 2026 JH2, confirm safe flybys without atmospheric entry risks matching 5kt energy thresholds. While undiscovered meter-scale bodies contribute baseline uncertainty and Q1 2026 saw elevated fireball reports, ground-impact rates for this size class remain statistically low annually. Traders weigh these verified monitoring results against residual discovery gaps, supporting the current 72.5% No consensus ahead of further catalog updates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Pasar Dibuka: Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
Volume
$306,607Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies continuously scans known near-Earth objects via the Sentry impact-monitoring system, with no objects currently showing more than negligible collision probabilities through 2026 or beyond. Close approaches by plane- or house-sized asteroids remain distant misses, and recent small-object detections, including 2026 EG1 and 2026 JH2, confirm safe flybys without atmospheric entry risks matching 5kt energy thresholds. While undiscovered meter-scale bodies contribute baseline uncertainty and Q1 2026 saw elevated fireball reports, ground-impact rates for this size class remain statistically low annually. Traders weigh these verified monitoring results against residual discovery gaps, supporting the current 72.5% No consensus ahead of further catalog updates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$306,607Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies continuously scans known near-Earth objects via the Sentry impact-monitoring system, with no objects currently showing more than negligible collision probabilities through 2026 or beyond. Close approaches by plane- or house-sized asteroids remain distant misses, and recent small-object detections, including 2026 EG1 and 2026 JH2, confirm safe flybys without atmospheric entry risks matching 5kt energy thresholds. While undiscovered meter-scale bodies contribute baseline uncertainty and Q1 2026 saw elevated fireball reports, ground-impact rates for this size class remain statistically low annually. Traders weigh these verified monitoring results against residual discovery gaps, supporting the current 72.5% No consensus ahead of further catalog updates.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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