NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system reports zero potential impacts for 2026 among tracked asteroids, anchoring trader consensus behind the 58.5% implied probability for "No" on a 5 kiloton TNT-equivalent meteor airburst. Historical CNEOS fireball data show such energetic bolides—capable of regional effects like the 2013 Chelyabinsk event (500kt)—occur infrequently, roughly a few times per decade globally, far rarer than dozens of smaller annual detections. Q1 2026's record surge in large fireballs per American Meteor Society analysis featured bright events below 5kt, such as Ohio's 0.25kt bolide, with no qualifiers. Early Vera C. Rubin Observatory data uncovering 11,000 new near-Earth objects has identified safe close approaches like 2026 GD but no threats, though undetected small meteors maintain baseline uncertainty; expect CNEOS updates to refine odds through year-end.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui5kt meteor strike in 2026?
5kt meteor strike in 2026?
$292,028 Vol.
$292,028 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$292,028 Vol.
$292,028 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system reports zero potential impacts for 2026 among tracked asteroids, anchoring trader consensus behind the 58.5% implied probability for "No" on a 5 kiloton TNT-equivalent meteor airburst. Historical CNEOS fireball data show such energetic bolides—capable of regional effects like the 2013 Chelyabinsk event (500kt)—occur infrequently, roughly a few times per decade globally, far rarer than dozens of smaller annual detections. Q1 2026's record surge in large fireballs per American Meteor Society analysis featured bright events below 5kt, such as Ohio's 0.25kt bolide, with no qualifiers. Early Vera C. Rubin Observatory data uncovering 11,000 new near-Earth objects has identified safe close approaches like 2026 GD but no threats, though undetected small meteors maintain baseline uncertainty; expect CNEOS updates to refine odds through year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Pasar Dibuka: Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
Volume
$292,028Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system reports zero potential impacts for 2026 among tracked asteroids, anchoring trader consensus behind the 58.5% implied probability for "No" on a 5 kiloton TNT-equivalent meteor airburst. Historical CNEOS fireball data show such energetic bolides—capable of regional effects like the 2013 Chelyabinsk event (500kt)—occur infrequently, roughly a few times per decade globally, far rarer than dozens of smaller annual detections. Q1 2026's record surge in large fireballs per American Meteor Society analysis featured bright events below 5kt, such as Ohio's 0.25kt bolide, with no qualifiers. Early Vera C. Rubin Observatory data uncovering 11,000 new near-Earth objects has identified safe close approaches like 2026 GD but no threats, though undetected small meteors maintain baseline uncertainty; expect CNEOS updates to refine odds through year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$292,028Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system reports zero potential impacts for 2026 among tracked asteroids, anchoring trader consensus behind the 58.5% implied probability for "No" on a 5 kiloton TNT-equivalent meteor airburst. Historical CNEOS fireball data show such energetic bolides—capable of regional effects like the 2013 Chelyabinsk event (500kt)—occur infrequently, roughly a few times per decade globally, far rarer than dozens of smaller annual detections. Q1 2026's record surge in large fireballs per American Meteor Society analysis featured bright events below 5kt, such as Ohio's 0.25kt bolide, with no qualifiers. Early Vera C. Rubin Observatory data uncovering 11,000 new near-Earth objects has identified safe close approaches like 2026 GD but no threats, though undetected small meteors maintain baseline uncertainty; expect CNEOS updates to refine odds through year-end.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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