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Iklim & Sains·Pandemi

CDC issues Level 4 warning by December 31?

Market icon
Iklim & Sains·Pandemi

CDC issues Level 4 warning by December 31?

Dec 31

Dec 31

30% peluang
Polymarket

$70,268 Vol.

30% peluang
Polymarket

$70,268 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 4 (“Avoid All Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus reflects a 70% implied probability for "No" on the CDC issuing a Level 4 "Avoid All Travel" notice by December 31, 2026, driven by the absence of any active Level 4 Travel Health Notices and no escalations in recent outbreaks warranting such extreme measures. Official CDC data as of mid-April shows only Level 2 and 3 notices issued in the past month—for meningococcal disease in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (March 24), yellow fever in Venezuela (March 16), and chikungunya in Mayotte (March 10)—reflecting heightened but not life-threatening risks to all travelers based on confirmed case counts and transmission dynamics. Global surveillance reveals no epidemiological indicators of imminent high-risk events like widespread Ebola or novel pandemics, with measles outbreaks largely U.S.-confined and polio at Level 2. Upcoming CDC updates and WHO reports could shift odds if unexpected surges occur, underscoring inherent forecasting uncertainty.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 4 (“Avoid All Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$70,268
Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Jan 19, 2026, 3:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 4 (“Avoid All Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 4 (“Avoid All Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus reflects a 70% implied probability for "No" on the CDC issuing a Level 4 "Avoid All Travel" notice by December 31, 2026, driven by the absence of any active Level 4 Travel Health Notices and no escalations in recent outbreaks warranting such extreme measures. Official CDC data as of mid-April shows only Level 2 and 3 notices issued in the past month—for meningococcal disease in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (March 24), yellow fever in Venezuela (March 16), and chikungunya in Mayotte (March 10)—reflecting heightened but not life-threatening risks to all travelers based on confirmed case counts and transmission dynamics. Global surveillance reveals no epidemiological indicators of imminent high-risk events like widespread Ebola or novel pandemics, with measles outbreaks largely U.S.-confined and polio at Level 2. Upcoming CDC updates and WHO reports could shift odds if unexpected surges occur, underscoring inherent forecasting uncertainty.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 4 (“Avoid All Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$70,268
Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Jan 19, 2026, 3:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 4 (“Avoid All Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"CDC issues Level 4 warning by December 31?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham "Ya" atau "Tidak" berdasarkan apakah mereka yakin event ini akan terjadi. Probabilitas crowd-sourced saat ini adalah 30% untuk "Yes." Misalnya, jika "Ya" dihargai 30¢, pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 30% bahwa event ini akan terjadi. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

Per hari ini, "CDC issues Level 4 warning by December 31?" telah menghasilkan $70.3K dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada Jan 19, 2026. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.

Untuk trading di "CDC issues Level 4 warning by December 31?," cukup pilih apakah kamu yakin jawabannya "Ya" atau "Tidak." Setiap sisi memiliki harga saat ini yang mencerminkan probabilitas tersirat pasar. Masukkan jumlah kamu dan klik "Trade." Jika kamu membeli saham "Ya" dan hasilnya diselesaikan sebagai "Ya," setiap saham membayar $1. Jika diselesaikan sebagai "Tidak," saham "Ya" kamu bernilai $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Probabilitas saat ini untuk "CDC issues Level 4 warning by December 31?" adalah 30% untuk "Yes." Ini berarti keramaian Polymarket saat ini percaya ada peluang 30% bahwa event ini akan terjadi. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time berdasarkan trade aktual, memberikan sinyal yang terus diperbarui tentang apa yang diharapkan pasar.

Aturan resolusi untuk "CDC issues Level 4 warning by December 31?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.