Recent activity at Anak Krakatau has emerged as the dominant factor behind the 55% market-implied probability for exactly one VEI ≥4 eruption in 2026. A sub-Plinian event in early September produced a sustained ash plume reaching 15 km and an estimated tephra volume just above the 0.1 km³ VEI 4 threshold, according to geologist assessments and satellite observations. Ongoing monitoring by Indonesia’s PVMBG and the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program will determine final classification, with confirmation expected in 2027 data releases. No other confirmed VEI ≥4 events have occurred year-to-date, consistent with the low historical annual rate of roughly 0.5–1 such eruptions globally. Traders appear to weigh the Krakatau plume height and volume estimates against typical model uncertainty in explosivity assignments, while the 36.5% odds on zero reflect caution pending official VEI assignment. Continued unrest at the volcano and any additional large plumes before year-end remain the key variables.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiBerapa banyak letusan gunung berapi besar (VEI ≥4) pada tahun 2026?
Berapa banyak letusan gunung berapi besar (VEI ≥4) pada tahun 2026?
1 56%
0 43%
2 6.9%
3 5.9%
$1,164,346 Vol.
$1,164,346 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
0
37%
1
55%
2
7%
3
6%
4
1%
5+
1%
1 56%
0 43%
2 6.9%
3 5.9%
$1,164,346 Vol.
$1,164,346 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
0
$499,872 Vol.
37%
1
$274,845 Vol.
55%
2
$46,002 Vol.
7%
3
$32,113 Vol.
6%
4
$35,623 Vol.
1%
5+
$275,891 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Recent activity at Anak Krakatau has emerged as the dominant factor behind the 55% market-implied probability for exactly one VEI ≥4 eruption in 2026. A sub-Plinian event in early September produced a sustained ash plume reaching 15 km and an estimated tephra volume just above the 0.1 km³ VEI 4 threshold, according to geologist assessments and satellite observations. Ongoing monitoring by Indonesia’s PVMBG and the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program will determine final classification, with confirmation expected in 2027 data releases. No other confirmed VEI ≥4 events have occurred year-to-date, consistent with the low historical annual rate of roughly 0.5–1 such eruptions globally. Traders appear to weigh the Krakatau plume height and volume estimates against typical model uncertainty in explosivity assignments, while the 36.5% odds on zero reflect caution pending official VEI assignment. Continued unrest at the volcano and any additional large plumes before year-end remain the key variables.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ET
Volume
$1,164,346Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Recent activity at Anak Krakatau has emerged as the dominant factor behind the 55% market-implied probability for exactly one VEI ≥4 eruption in 2026. A sub-Plinian event in early September produced a sustained ash plume reaching 15 km and an estimated tephra volume just above the 0.1 km³ VEI 4 threshold, according to geologist assessments and satellite observations. Ongoing monitoring by Indonesia’s PVMBG and the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program will determine final classification, with confirmation expected in 2027 data releases. No other confirmed VEI ≥4 events have occurred year-to-date, consistent with the low historical annual rate of roughly 0.5–1 such eruptions globally. Traders appear to weigh the Krakatau plume height and volume estimates against typical model uncertainty in explosivity assignments, while the 36.5% odds on zero reflect caution pending official VEI assignment. Continued unrest at the volcano and any additional large plumes before year-end remain the key variables.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Volume
$1,164,346Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent activity at Anak Krakatau has emerged as the dominant factor behind the 55% market-implied probability for exactly one VEI ≥4 eruption in 2026. A sub-Plinian event in early September produced a sustained ash plume reaching 15 km and an estimated tephra volume just above the 0.1 km³ VEI 4 threshold, according to geologist assessments and satellite observations. Ongoing monitoring by Indonesia’s PVMBG and the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program will determine final classification, with confirmation expected in 2027 data releases. No other confirmed VEI ≥4 events have occurred year-to-date, consistent with the low historical annual rate of roughly 0.5–1 such eruptions globally. Traders appear to weigh the Krakatau plume height and volume estimates against typical model uncertainty in explosivity assignments, while the 36.5% odds on zero reflect caution pending official VEI assignment. Continued unrest at the volcano and any additional large plumes before year-end remain the key variables.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan