Mount Vesuvius remains at green alert with all monitored parameters at baseline levels according to the latest INGV Osservatorio Vesuviano reports. August 2026 data showed only low-energy seismicity (112 events, mostly below magnitude 1.0), no ground deformation linked to magmatic sources, stable crater temperatures, and a continuing decline in hydrothermal activity. This quiescent state, persisting since the 1944 eruption, underpins the 95.4% market-implied probability of no VEI 1+ event through year-end. Continuous multi-parameter surveillance by INGV reduces the chance of undetected rapid escalation, though an abrupt shift in seismic swarms, fumarolic chemistry, or deformation could still alter the outlook before December.
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Vesuvius eruption with 1+ VEI in 2026?
5% peluang
BARU
BARU
Dec 31, 2026
5% peluang
BARU
BARU
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Vesuvius volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 1 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Vesuvius eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.Mount Vesuvius remains at green alert with all monitored parameters at baseline levels according to the latest INGV Osservatorio Vesuviano reports. August 2026 data showed only low-energy seismicity (112 events, mostly below magnitude 1.0), no ground deformation linked to magmatic sources, stable crater temperatures, and a continuing decline in hydrothermal activity. This quiescent state, persisting since the 1944 eruption, underpins the 95.4% market-implied probability of no VEI 1+ event through year-end. Continuous multi-parameter surveillance by INGV reduces the chance of undetected rapid escalation, though an abrupt shift in seismic swarms, fumarolic chemistry, or deformation could still alter the outlook before December.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Vesuvius volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 1 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Vesuvius eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Vesuvius eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Pasar Dibuka: Apr 21, 2026, 3:33 PM ET
Volume
$660Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Apr 21, 2026, 3:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Vesuvius volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 1 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Vesuvius eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.Mount Vesuvius remains at green alert with all monitored parameters at baseline levels according to the latest INGV Osservatorio Vesuviano reports. August 2026 data showed only low-energy seismicity (112 events, mostly below magnitude 1.0), no ground deformation linked to magmatic sources, stable crater temperatures, and a continuing decline in hydrothermal activity. This quiescent state, persisting since the 1944 eruption, underpins the 95.4% market-implied probability of no VEI 1+ event through year-end. Continuous multi-parameter surveillance by INGV reduces the chance of undetected rapid escalation, though an abrupt shift in seismic swarms, fumarolic chemistry, or deformation could still alter the outlook before December.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Vesuvius volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 1 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Vesuvius eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Vesuvius eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Volume
$660Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Apr 21, 2026, 3:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Mount Vesuvius remains at green alert with all monitored parameters at baseline levels according to the latest INGV Osservatorio Vesuviano reports. August 2026 data showed only low-energy seismicity (112 events, mostly below magnitude 1.0), no ground deformation linked to magmatic sources, stable crater temperatures, and a continuing decline in hydrothermal activity. This quiescent state, persisting since the 1944 eruption, underpins the 95.4% market-implied probability of no VEI 1+ event through year-end. Continuous multi-parameter surveillance by INGV reduces the chance of undetected rapid escalation, though an abrupt shift in seismic swarms, fumarolic chemistry, or deformation could still alter the outlook before December.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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