Extensive planetary defense monitoring via optical telescopes, radar arrays, and infrared surveys has identified no near-Earth objects capable of delivering 1-megaton-scale energy on collision trajectories through 2026, anchoring the 98.5% “No” consensus. Historical impact frequencies for this yield class—roughly once every several hundred years—combined with the absence of credible candidates in CNEOS catalogs reinforce trader confidence as the year nears its close. The only plausible variables capable of shifting resolution remain an undetected long-period comet or a last-minute orbital recalculation, both of which would require immediate verification against multiple independent datasets before altering market-implied odds.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?
1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?
2% peluang
$116,334 Vol.
$116,334 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
2% peluang
$116,334 Vol.
$116,334 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Extensive planetary defense monitoring via optical telescopes, radar arrays, and infrared surveys has identified no near-Earth objects capable of delivering 1-megaton-scale energy on collision trajectories through 2026, anchoring the 98.5% “No” consensus. Historical impact frequencies for this yield class—roughly once every several hundred years—combined with the absence of credible candidates in CNEOS catalogs reinforce trader confidence as the year nears its close. The only plausible variables capable of shifting resolution remain an undetected long-period comet or a last-minute orbital recalculation, both of which would require immediate verification against multiple independent datasets before altering market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Pasar Dibuka: Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
Volume
$116,334Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Extensive planetary defense monitoring via optical telescopes, radar arrays, and infrared surveys has identified no near-Earth objects capable of delivering 1-megaton-scale energy on collision trajectories through 2026, anchoring the 98.5% “No” consensus. Historical impact frequencies for this yield class—roughly once every several hundred years—combined with the absence of credible candidates in CNEOS catalogs reinforce trader confidence as the year nears its close. The only plausible variables capable of shifting resolution remain an undetected long-period comet or a last-minute orbital recalculation, both of which would require immediate verification against multiple independent datasets before altering market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$116,334Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Extensive planetary defense monitoring via optical telescopes, radar arrays, and infrared surveys has identified no near-Earth objects capable of delivering 1-megaton-scale energy on collision trajectories through 2026, anchoring the 98.5% “No” consensus. Historical impact frequencies for this yield class—roughly once every several hundred years—combined with the absence of credible candidates in CNEOS catalogs reinforce trader confidence as the year nears its close. The only plausible variables capable of shifting resolution remain an undetected long-period comet or a last-minute orbital recalculation, both of which would require immediate verification against multiple independent datasets before altering market-implied odds.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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