NASA's Sentry Earth impact monitoring system and ESA's risk list report no near-Earth objects (NEOs) with meaningful probabilities of a 10kt+ meteor strike in 2026, driving the 77% market-implied odds for "No." Recent safe close approaches—like house-sized asteroid 2026 GD passing 156,000 miles from Earth on April 9 and bus-sized 2026 EG1 in March—highlight the efficacy of planetary defense tracking, with over 11,000 NEOs cataloged this year alone. Historical data shows roughly one such event every 2-3 years from small, often undetected bolides, justifying the 23% "Yes" tail risk despite improved detection via telescopes like Pan-STARRS. Ongoing surveys could refine odds if new objects emerge.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiMajor meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?
$144,910 Vol.
$144,910 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$144,910 Vol.
$144,910 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's Sentry Earth impact monitoring system and ESA's risk list report no near-Earth objects (NEOs) with meaningful probabilities of a 10kt+ meteor strike in 2026, driving the 77% market-implied odds for "No." Recent safe close approaches—like house-sized asteroid 2026 GD passing 156,000 miles from Earth on April 9 and bus-sized 2026 EG1 in March—highlight the efficacy of planetary defense tracking, with over 11,000 NEOs cataloged this year alone. Historical data shows roughly one such event every 2-3 years from small, often undetected bolides, justifying the 23% "Yes" tail risk despite improved detection via telescopes like Pan-STARRS. Ongoing surveys could refine odds if new objects emerge.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Pasar Dibuka: Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ET
Volume
$144,910Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's Sentry Earth impact monitoring system and ESA's risk list report no near-Earth objects (NEOs) with meaningful probabilities of a 10kt+ meteor strike in 2026, driving the 77% market-implied odds for "No." Recent safe close approaches—like house-sized asteroid 2026 GD passing 156,000 miles from Earth on April 9 and bus-sized 2026 EG1 in March—highlight the efficacy of planetary defense tracking, with over 11,000 NEOs cataloged this year alone. Historical data shows roughly one such event every 2-3 years from small, often undetected bolides, justifying the 23% "Yes" tail risk despite improved detection via telescopes like Pan-STARRS. Ongoing surveys could refine odds if new objects emerge.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$144,910Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NASA's Sentry Earth impact monitoring system and ESA's risk list report no near-Earth objects (NEOs) with meaningful probabilities of a 10kt+ meteor strike in 2026, driving the 77% market-implied odds for "No." Recent safe close approaches—like house-sized asteroid 2026 GD passing 156,000 miles from Earth on April 9 and bus-sized 2026 EG1 in March—highlight the efficacy of planetary defense tracking, with over 11,000 NEOs cataloged this year alone. Historical data shows roughly one such event every 2-3 years from small, often undetected bolides, justifying the 23% "Yes" tail risk despite improved detection via telescopes like Pan-STARRS. Ongoing surveys could refine odds if new objects emerge.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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