Improved near-Earth object detection systems, including expanded surveys that pushed known near-Earth asteroids past 40,000 by late 2025, have identified no objects on collision trajectories capable of a 10kt+ atmospheric impact in 2026. NASA’s Sentry risk assessments and recent observations continue to show zero credible threats through year-end, with any close approaches remaining well below impact thresholds. Trader consensus at 88.5% for “No” reflects this absence of candidates alongside historical frequency data indicating such events occur roughly once per several decades. Ongoing telescope upgrades and rapid follow-up observations further reduce uncertainty, though undetected small objects remain a low-probability wildcard until late in the year.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiMajor meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?
12% peluang
$200,166 Vol.
$200,166 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
12% peluang
$200,166 Vol.
$200,166 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Improved near-Earth object detection systems, including expanded surveys that pushed known near-Earth asteroids past 40,000 by late 2025, have identified no objects on collision trajectories capable of a 10kt+ atmospheric impact in 2026. NASA’s Sentry risk assessments and recent observations continue to show zero credible threats through year-end, with any close approaches remaining well below impact thresholds. Trader consensus at 88.5% for “No” reflects this absence of candidates alongside historical frequency data indicating such events occur roughly once per several decades. Ongoing telescope upgrades and rapid follow-up observations further reduce uncertainty, though undetected small objects remain a low-probability wildcard until late in the year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Pasar Dibuka: Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ET
Volume
$200,166Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Improved near-Earth object detection systems, including expanded surveys that pushed known near-Earth asteroids past 40,000 by late 2025, have identified no objects on collision trajectories capable of a 10kt+ atmospheric impact in 2026. NASA’s Sentry risk assessments and recent observations continue to show zero credible threats through year-end, with any close approaches remaining well below impact thresholds. Trader consensus at 88.5% for “No” reflects this absence of candidates alongside historical frequency data indicating such events occur roughly once per several decades. Ongoing telescope upgrades and rapid follow-up observations further reduce uncertainty, though undetected small objects remain a low-probability wildcard until late in the year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$200,166Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Improved near-Earth object detection systems, including expanded surveys that pushed known near-Earth asteroids past 40,000 by late 2025, have identified no objects on collision trajectories capable of a 10kt+ atmospheric impact in 2026. NASA’s Sentry risk assessments and recent observations continue to show zero credible threats through year-end, with any close approaches remaining well below impact thresholds. Trader consensus at 88.5% for “No” reflects this absence of candidates alongside historical frequency data indicating such events occur roughly once per several decades. Ongoing telescope upgrades and rapid follow-up observations further reduce uncertainty, though undetected small objects remain a low-probability wildcard until late in the year.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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