Extensive NASA and ESA monitoring through systems like Sentry has cataloged the vast majority of near-Earth objects capable of 100kt TNT-equivalent impacts, revealing no collision trajectories through December 2026. Refined orbital data from recent close approaches, including 2026 JH2, confirm zero risk, consistent with historical impact frequencies for meter-scale bodies averaging once every several years globally yet none materializing this year. With more than half of 2026 elapsed without event, remaining windows have narrowed sharply. Only an undetected small asteroid discovered with minimal lead time could theoretically alter this, though current survey completeness renders such a scenario highly improbable before resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui100kt meteor strike in 2026?
100kt meteor strike in 2026?
5% peluang
BARU
BARU
Dec 30, 2026
5% peluang
BARU
BARU
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Extensive NASA and ESA monitoring through systems like Sentry has cataloged the vast majority of near-Earth objects capable of 100kt TNT-equivalent impacts, revealing no collision trajectories through December 2026. Refined orbital data from recent close approaches, including 2026 JH2, confirm zero risk, consistent with historical impact frequencies for meter-scale bodies averaging once every several years globally yet none materializing this year. With more than half of 2026 elapsed without event, remaining windows have narrowed sharply. Only an undetected small asteroid discovered with minimal lead time could theoretically alter this, though current survey completeness renders such a scenario highly improbable before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Pasar Dibuka: Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ET
Volume
$8,902Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Extensive NASA and ESA monitoring through systems like Sentry has cataloged the vast majority of near-Earth objects capable of 100kt TNT-equivalent impacts, revealing no collision trajectories through December 2026. Refined orbital data from recent close approaches, including 2026 JH2, confirm zero risk, consistent with historical impact frequencies for meter-scale bodies averaging once every several years globally yet none materializing this year. With more than half of 2026 elapsed without event, remaining windows have narrowed sharply. Only an undetected small asteroid discovered with minimal lead time could theoretically alter this, though current survey completeness renders such a scenario highly improbable before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$8,902Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Extensive NASA and ESA monitoring through systems like Sentry has cataloged the vast majority of near-Earth objects capable of 100kt TNT-equivalent impacts, revealing no collision trajectories through December 2026. Refined orbital data from recent close approaches, including 2026 JH2, confirm zero risk, consistent with historical impact frequencies for meter-scale bodies averaging once every several years globally yet none materializing this year. With more than half of 2026 elapsed without event, remaining windows have narrowed sharply. Only an undetected small asteroid discovered with minimal lead time could theoretically alter this, though current survey completeness renders such a scenario highly improbable before resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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