Incumbent Democrat Marcy Kaptur, who has represented Ohio’s 9th district since 1983, faces Republican former state legislator Derek Merrin in the November 2026 general election. Kaptur won the Democratic primary unopposed after securing a narrow 2024 victory by roughly 2,400 votes, while Merrin prevailed in the Republican primary. Mid-decade redistricting shifted the district’s partisan voting index toward Republicans, creating a more competitive environment rated as a toss-up or lean Republican by some analysts. A hit-and-run incident that hospitalized Kaptur on August 2 has introduced fresh uncertainty into the race. Traders’ consensus assigns the Democratic nominee a 64.5% implied probability, reflecting assessments of Kaptur’s incumbency advantages, name recognition, and fundraising edge against the structural changes from redistricting and the open seat dynamics that could favor the GOP challenger.
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OH-09 House Election Winner
$25,263 Vol.
$25,263 Vol.
Nov 4, 2026
Democratic Party
65%
Republican Party
36%
$25,263 Vol.
$25,263 Vol.
Nov 4, 2026
Democratic Party
$2,146 Vol.
65%
Republican Party
$23,118 Vol.
36%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Marcy Kaptur, who has represented Ohio’s 9th district since 1983, faces Republican former state legislator Derek Merrin in the November 2026 general election. Kaptur won the Democratic primary unopposed after securing a narrow 2024 victory by roughly 2,400 votes, while Merrin prevailed in the Republican primary. Mid-decade redistricting shifted the district’s partisan voting index toward Republicans, creating a more competitive environment rated as a toss-up or lean Republican by some analysts. A hit-and-run incident that hospitalized Kaptur on August 2 has introduced fresh uncertainty into the race. Traders’ consensus assigns the Democratic nominee a 64.5% implied probability, reflecting assessments of Kaptur’s incumbency advantages, name recognition, and fundraising edge against the structural changes from redistricting and the open seat dynamics that could favor the GOP challenger.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Pasar Dibuka: Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ET
Volume
$25,263Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 4, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Marcy Kaptur, who has represented Ohio’s 9th district since 1983, faces Republican former state legislator Derek Merrin in the November 2026 general election. Kaptur won the Democratic primary unopposed after securing a narrow 2024 victory by roughly 2,400 votes, while Merrin prevailed in the Republican primary. Mid-decade redistricting shifted the district’s partisan voting index toward Republicans, creating a more competitive environment rated as a toss-up or lean Republican by some analysts. A hit-and-run incident that hospitalized Kaptur on August 2 has introduced fresh uncertainty into the race. Traders’ consensus assigns the Democratic nominee a 64.5% implied probability, reflecting assessments of Kaptur’s incumbency advantages, name recognition, and fundraising edge against the structural changes from redistricting and the open seat dynamics that could favor the GOP challenger.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$25,263Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 4, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Marcy Kaptur, who has represented Ohio’s 9th district since 1983, faces Republican former state legislator Derek Merrin in the November 2026 general election. Kaptur won the Democratic primary unopposed after securing a narrow 2024 victory by roughly 2,400 votes, while Merrin prevailed in the Republican primary. Mid-decade redistricting shifted the district’s partisan voting index toward Republicans, creating a more competitive environment rated as a toss-up or lean Republican by some analysts. A hit-and-run incident that hospitalized Kaptur on August 2 has introduced fresh uncertainty into the race. Traders’ consensus assigns the Democratic nominee a 64.5% implied probability, reflecting assessments of Kaptur’s incumbency advantages, name recognition, and fundraising edge against the structural changes from redistricting and the open seat dynamics that could favor the GOP challenger.
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