The absence of any congressional legislation or presidential declaration to reinstate conscription under the Military Selective Service Act underpins trader consensus that no draft will be authorized in 2026. The U.S. has maintained an all-volunteer force since 1973, and recent updates in the fiscal 2026 National Defense Authorization Act address only automatic Selective Service registration for men ages 18-26, a procedural streamlining rather than activation of induction authority. No major legislative proposals or votes have advanced to change this framework through mid-August. Escalation in active conflicts sufficient to strain recruitment, combined with bipartisan support for a draft measure and rapid passage before year-end, remain the primary pathways that could shift odds.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui5% peluang
$521,368 Vol.
$521,368 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
5% peluang
$521,368 Vol.
$521,368 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The absence of any congressional legislation or presidential declaration to reinstate conscription under the Military Selective Service Act underpins trader consensus that no draft will be authorized in 2026. The U.S. has maintained an all-volunteer force since 1973, and recent updates in the fiscal 2026 National Defense Authorization Act address only automatic Selective Service registration for men ages 18-26, a procedural streamlining rather than activation of induction authority. No major legislative proposals or votes have advanced to change this framework through mid-August. Escalation in active conflicts sufficient to strain recruitment, combined with bipartisan support for a draft measure and rapid passage before year-end, remain the primary pathways that could shift odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Pasar Dibuka: Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ET
Volume
$521,368Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The absence of any congressional legislation or presidential declaration to reinstate conscription under the Military Selective Service Act underpins trader consensus that no draft will be authorized in 2026. The U.S. has maintained an all-volunteer force since 1973, and recent updates in the fiscal 2026 National Defense Authorization Act address only automatic Selective Service registration for men ages 18-26, a procedural streamlining rather than activation of induction authority. No major legislative proposals or votes have advanced to change this framework through mid-August. Escalation in active conflicts sufficient to strain recruitment, combined with bipartisan support for a draft measure and rapid passage before year-end, remain the primary pathways that could shift odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$521,368Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The absence of any congressional legislation or presidential declaration to reinstate conscription under the Military Selective Service Act underpins trader consensus that no draft will be authorized in 2026. The U.S. has maintained an all-volunteer force since 1973, and recent updates in the fiscal 2026 National Defense Authorization Act address only automatic Selective Service registration for men ages 18-26, a procedural streamlining rather than activation of induction authority. No major legislative proposals or votes have advanced to change this framework through mid-August. Escalation in active conflicts sufficient to strain recruitment, combined with bipartisan support for a draft measure and rapid passage before year-end, remain the primary pathways that could shift odds.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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