Trader consensus clusters tightly around an annual US goods and services trade deficit of 800–900 billion (29%) and 900 billion–1 trillion (25%), reflecting Bureau of Economic Analysis data showing January–February 2026 deficits totaling roughly $112 billion—a 55% plunge from 2025's year-to-date amid Trump administration tariffs curbing imports while boosting exports. However, the Supreme Court's February 20 ruling invalidating IEEPA-based tariffs, followed by their termination, risks unleashing import surges and refunds, tempering optimism for deeper contraction. Economists like those at Deloitte foresee further narrowing through policy shifts and the 2026 Trade Policy Agenda, but strong US consumer demand and global supply chains keep the race close; March trade figures and Q1 GDP revisions could tip probabilities via import rebound signals or new tariff announcements.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui$19,219 Vol.
$19,219 Vol.
Feb 28, 2027
<500B
8%
500–600B
3%
600–700B
7%
700–800B
15%
800–900B
28%
900B–1T
25%
1T–1.1T
10%
1.1T+
8%
$19,219 Vol.
$19,219 Vol.
Feb 28, 2027
<500B
$16,429 Vol.
8%
500–600B
$225 Vol.
3%
600–700B
$244 Vol.
7%
700–800B
$290 Vol.
15%
800–900B
$570 Vol.
28%
900B–1T
$765 Vol.
25%
1T–1.1T
$239 Vol.
10%
1.1T+
$457 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Trader consensus clusters tightly around an annual US goods and services trade deficit of 800–900 billion (29%) and 900 billion–1 trillion (25%), reflecting Bureau of Economic Analysis data showing January–February 2026 deficits totaling roughly $112 billion—a 55% plunge from 2025's year-to-date amid Trump administration tariffs curbing imports while boosting exports. However, the Supreme Court's February 20 ruling invalidating IEEPA-based tariffs, followed by their termination, risks unleashing import surges and refunds, tempering optimism for deeper contraction. Economists like those at Deloitte foresee further narrowing through policy shifts and the 2026 Trade Policy Agenda, but strong US consumer demand and global supply chains keep the race close; March trade figures and Q1 GDP revisions could tip probabilities via import rebound signals or new tariff announcements.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volume
$19,219Tanggal Berakhir
Feb 28, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Trader consensus clusters tightly around an annual US goods and services trade deficit of 800–900 billion (29%) and 900 billion–1 trillion (25%), reflecting Bureau of Economic Analysis data showing January–February 2026 deficits totaling roughly $112 billion—a 55% plunge from 2025's year-to-date amid Trump administration tariffs curbing imports while boosting exports. However, the Supreme Court's February 20 ruling invalidating IEEPA-based tariffs, followed by their termination, risks unleashing import surges and refunds, tempering optimism for deeper contraction. Economists like those at Deloitte foresee further narrowing through policy shifts and the 2026 Trade Policy Agenda, but strong US consumer demand and global supply chains keep the race close; March trade figures and Q1 GDP revisions could tip probabilities via import rebound signals or new tariff announcements.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Volume
$19,219Tanggal Berakhir
Feb 28, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus clusters tightly around an annual US goods and services trade deficit of 800–900 billion (29%) and 900 billion–1 trillion (25%), reflecting Bureau of Economic Analysis data showing January–February 2026 deficits totaling roughly $112 billion—a 55% plunge from 2025's year-to-date amid Trump administration tariffs curbing imports while boosting exports. However, the Supreme Court's February 20 ruling invalidating IEEPA-based tariffs, followed by their termination, risks unleashing import surges and refunds, tempering optimism for deeper contraction. Economists like those at Deloitte foresee further narrowing through policy shifts and the 2026 Trade Policy Agenda, but strong US consumer demand and global supply chains keep the race close; March trade figures and Q1 GDP revisions could tip probabilities via import rebound signals or new tariff announcements.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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