Recent tariff policies imposed since early 2025 have curbed import growth and prompted supply-chain adjustments, contributing to a narrower goods and services deficit in early 2026 compared with late 2025 peaks, with monthly figures ranging from $54.5 billion in January to $60.3 billion in March. Export gains in energy, capital goods, and services, alongside slower import recovery amid higher duties, support trader expectations for an annual 2026 deficit near 2025 levels of roughly $900 billion. Congressional Budget Office projections indicate exports will outpace imports over the medium term due to tariff effects on inbound flows and gradual dollar depreciation, reinforcing the 800–900 billion range as the modal outcome while allowing scope for further narrowing or modest widening depending on economic momentum and policy continuity.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui$21,206 Vol.
$21,206 Vol.
Feb 28, 2027
<500B
5%
500–600B
6%
600–700B
10%
700–800B
8%
800–900B
41%
900B–1T
25%
1T–1.1T
5%
1.1T+
4%
$21,206 Vol.
$21,206 Vol.
Feb 28, 2027
<500B
$16,758 Vol.
5%
500–600B
$413 Vol.
6%
600–700B
$505 Vol.
10%
700–800B
$456 Vol.
8%
800–900B
$1,008 Vol.
41%
900B–1T
$984 Vol.
25%
1T–1.1T
$447 Vol.
5%
1.1T+
$635 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent tariff policies imposed since early 2025 have curbed import growth and prompted supply-chain adjustments, contributing to a narrower goods and services deficit in early 2026 compared with late 2025 peaks, with monthly figures ranging from $54.5 billion in January to $60.3 billion in March. Export gains in energy, capital goods, and services, alongside slower import recovery amid higher duties, support trader expectations for an annual 2026 deficit near 2025 levels of roughly $900 billion. Congressional Budget Office projections indicate exports will outpace imports over the medium term due to tariff effects on inbound flows and gradual dollar depreciation, reinforcing the 800–900 billion range as the modal outcome while allowing scope for further narrowing or modest widening depending on economic momentum and policy continuity.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volume
$21,206Tanggal Berakhir
Feb 28, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent tariff policies imposed since early 2025 have curbed import growth and prompted supply-chain adjustments, contributing to a narrower goods and services deficit in early 2026 compared with late 2025 peaks, with monthly figures ranging from $54.5 billion in January to $60.3 billion in March. Export gains in energy, capital goods, and services, alongside slower import recovery amid higher duties, support trader expectations for an annual 2026 deficit near 2025 levels of roughly $900 billion. Congressional Budget Office projections indicate exports will outpace imports over the medium term due to tariff effects on inbound flows and gradual dollar depreciation, reinforcing the 800–900 billion range as the modal outcome while allowing scope for further narrowing or modest widening depending on economic momentum and policy continuity.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Volume
$21,206Tanggal Berakhir
Feb 28, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent tariff policies imposed since early 2025 have curbed import growth and prompted supply-chain adjustments, contributing to a narrower goods and services deficit in early 2026 compared with late 2025 peaks, with monthly figures ranging from $54.5 billion in January to $60.3 billion in March. Export gains in energy, capital goods, and services, alongside slower import recovery amid higher duties, support trader expectations for an annual 2026 deficit near 2025 levels of roughly $900 billion. Congressional Budget Office projections indicate exports will outpace imports over the medium term due to tariff effects on inbound flows and gradual dollar depreciation, reinforcing the 800–900 billion range as the modal outcome while allowing scope for further narrowing or modest widening depending on economic momentum and policy continuity.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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