The U.S. decision at the July 1, 2026, six-year USMCA review not to confirm a 16-year extension under Article 34.7 has anchored trader expectations. President Trump’s administration, through U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, stated it would not renew the pact in its current form and instead launched bilateral renegotiations focused on stricter automotive rules of origin, higher regional content requirements, and measures to limit Chinese transshipment. Canada and Mexico both formally supported immediate renewal, but U.S. insistence on changes triggered annual joint reviews through 2036 rather than automatic extension. Ongoing talks with Mexico and slower discussions with Canada have produced no trilateral agreement to date, leaving the pact in force yet without the long-term renewal traders view as improbable before year-end.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui12% peluang
$10,716 Vol.
$10,716 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
12% peluang
$10,716 Vol.
$10,716 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is formally extended by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying extension requires all three parties to formally extend the term of the agreement. This may occur through written confirmation of their wish to extend the term for a further period pursuant to USMCA Article 34.7, or through other formal means that clearly and definitively extend the term, such as a unanimous amendment of the agreement. An extension qualifies whether or not it also includes negotiated modifications to the original agreement.
The following will not qualify: announcements unaccompanied by a formal extension; extension of individual provisions that does not extend the agreement's term itself; commitments to extend by fewer than all three parties; and replacement of the USMCA with a separate or successor agreement, as opposed to continuation of the existing agreement.
The primary resolution source is official information from the United States, Canada, and Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The U.S. decision at the July 1, 2026, six-year USMCA review not to confirm a 16-year extension under Article 34.7 has anchored trader expectations. President Trump’s administration, through U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, stated it would not renew the pact in its current form and instead launched bilateral renegotiations focused on stricter automotive rules of origin, higher regional content requirements, and measures to limit Chinese transshipment. Canada and Mexico both formally supported immediate renewal, but U.S. insistence on changes triggered annual joint reviews through 2036 rather than automatic extension. Ongoing talks with Mexico and slower discussions with Canada have produced no trilateral agreement to date, leaving the pact in force yet without the long-term renewal traders view as improbable before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is formally extended by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying extension requires all three parties to formally extend the term of the agreement. This may occur through written confirmation of their wish to extend the term for a further period pursuant to USMCA Article 34.7, or through other formal means that clearly and definitively extend the term, such as a unanimous amendment of the agreement. An extension qualifies whether or not it also includes negotiated modifications to the original agreement.
The following will not qualify: announcements unaccompanied by a formal extension; extension of individual provisions that does not extend the agreement's term itself; commitments to extend by fewer than all three parties; and replacement of the USMCA with a separate or successor agreement, as opposed to continuation of the existing agreement.
The primary resolution source is official information from the United States, Canada, and Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying extension requires all three parties to formally extend the term of the agreement. This may occur through written confirmation of their wish to extend the term for a further period pursuant to USMCA Article 34.7, or through other formal means that clearly and definitively extend the term, such as a unanimous amendment of the agreement. An extension qualifies whether or not it also includes negotiated modifications to the original agreement.
The following will not qualify: announcements unaccompanied by a formal extension; extension of individual provisions that does not extend the agreement's term itself; commitments to extend by fewer than all three parties; and replacement of the USMCA with a separate or successor agreement, as opposed to continuation of the existing agreement.
The primary resolution source is official information from the United States, Canada, and Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Pasar Dibuka: Jul 1, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
Volume
$10,716Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Jul 1, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is formally extended by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying extension requires all three parties to formally extend the term of the agreement. This may occur through written confirmation of their wish to extend the term for a further period pursuant to USMCA Article 34.7, or through other formal means that clearly and definitively extend the term, such as a unanimous amendment of the agreement. An extension qualifies whether or not it also includes negotiated modifications to the original agreement.
The following will not qualify: announcements unaccompanied by a formal extension; extension of individual provisions that does not extend the agreement's term itself; commitments to extend by fewer than all three parties; and replacement of the USMCA with a separate or successor agreement, as opposed to continuation of the existing agreement.
The primary resolution source is official information from the United States, Canada, and Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The U.S. decision at the July 1, 2026, six-year USMCA review not to confirm a 16-year extension under Article 34.7 has anchored trader expectations. President Trump’s administration, through U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, stated it would not renew the pact in its current form and instead launched bilateral renegotiations focused on stricter automotive rules of origin, higher regional content requirements, and measures to limit Chinese transshipment. Canada and Mexico both formally supported immediate renewal, but U.S. insistence on changes triggered annual joint reviews through 2036 rather than automatic extension. Ongoing talks with Mexico and slower discussions with Canada have produced no trilateral agreement to date, leaving the pact in force yet without the long-term renewal traders view as improbable before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is formally extended by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying extension requires all three parties to formally extend the term of the agreement. This may occur through written confirmation of their wish to extend the term for a further period pursuant to USMCA Article 34.7, or through other formal means that clearly and definitively extend the term, such as a unanimous amendment of the agreement. An extension qualifies whether or not it also includes negotiated modifications to the original agreement.
The following will not qualify: announcements unaccompanied by a formal extension; extension of individual provisions that does not extend the agreement's term itself; commitments to extend by fewer than all three parties; and replacement of the USMCA with a separate or successor agreement, as opposed to continuation of the existing agreement.
The primary resolution source is official information from the United States, Canada, and Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying extension requires all three parties to formally extend the term of the agreement. This may occur through written confirmation of their wish to extend the term for a further period pursuant to USMCA Article 34.7, or through other formal means that clearly and definitively extend the term, such as a unanimous amendment of the agreement. An extension qualifies whether or not it also includes negotiated modifications to the original agreement.
The following will not qualify: announcements unaccompanied by a formal extension; extension of individual provisions that does not extend the agreement's term itself; commitments to extend by fewer than all three parties; and replacement of the USMCA with a separate or successor agreement, as opposed to continuation of the existing agreement.
The primary resolution source is official information from the United States, Canada, and Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$10,716Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Jul 1, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The U.S. decision at the July 1, 2026, six-year USMCA review not to confirm a 16-year extension under Article 34.7 has anchored trader expectations. President Trump’s administration, through U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, stated it would not renew the pact in its current form and instead launched bilateral renegotiations focused on stricter automotive rules of origin, higher regional content requirements, and measures to limit Chinese transshipment. Canada and Mexico both formally supported immediate renewal, but U.S. insistence on changes triggered annual joint reviews through 2036 rather than automatic extension. Ongoing talks with Mexico and slower discussions with Canada have produced no trilateral agreement to date, leaving the pact in force yet without the long-term renewal traders view as improbable before year-end.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan